FOOTBALLER TIPS : Small investment Big profits Low risk and High reward

Return On Investment

The all-time ROI of Footballer Tips has been 15% which for a football tipping service is extremely good.

The first two months of the service each produced over 20% ROI but it has now settled to a consistent 10% – 15% every month.

This consistency is reflected in the performance graph which is practically a straight-line growth in profits.

Return on Capital

Following this tipster, with a recommended Betting Bank of 330 points, the Return On Capital (ROC) figure is an impressive 1100%.

In other words, your original bank of 330 units would have grown to over 3,700 units.

Betting Bank Growth in Money Terms

Over the 7 months of this service, a betting bank of £330 would have grown to over £17,000.

Starting with a betting bank of £330 in August’20 and fixing betting stakes for the month at 2% of the available betting bank at the start of the month you would have been placing £10 bets.

Seven months later in Feb’21, you would have been placing £100 bets and your betting bank would have grown by 50 times to over £17,000.

Consistency

Seven profitable months from 7 months of service – a perfect 100% success record.

But do not be fooled into thinking this is sustainable – bad times will inevitably come – Footballer Tips will, in all probability, hit losing months.

That said, however, all the indicators suggest these losing months may be far and few between.

Value for Money

When you sign-up for a tipster you hope to make the same profit, the same ROI, as the tipster. And you’re paying a subscription fee for that.

Each percentage of ROI therefore has a monetary £/$/€ cost. (e.g. 10% ROI costing £20 means each 1% of ROI costs £2)

This is a useful way to compare tipsters when shopping around for value-for-money – how much each 1% of ROI is costing you.

Footballer Tips’ 15% ROI costs £29 per month in subscription fee. Each 1% of ROI, therefore, costs around £1.70. This represents good value compared to the £2.20 average.

Combined with the consistency of this service the picture is beginning to look very positive.

Staking

Footballer Tips has published over 2000 tips and all have been advised at a fixed 10 points stake.

If you were betting at £1 per point this would be £10 per bet at the beginning.

You should, of course, increase/decrease your stakes on a regular basis based on the size of your betting bank.

For example, if you had joined this service 5 months ago in Oct’20  (when the ROI had settled to 10%-15%) with just £100 and started by placing £1 bets then by Feb’21 you could be placing £17 bets and your £100 would have grown to over £600.
(based on a monthly revision to betting stakes at 2% of available betting bank)

Betting Bank

The betting bank size for Footballer Tips would be around 330 to 350 points.

The size of the Betting Bank required to adequately follow a tipster is based on a combination of the average stake size and the Estimated Longest Losing Run (ELLR) which, in turn, is based on the Win Rate of the tipster’s bets.

This 330 points is based on having enough to suffer a worst-case scenario of two longest losing runs in a row and still have something left to continue betting.

The formula used here to calculate the size of Betting Bank is:  Betting Bank Size = 2.5  x  ELLR  x  Average Bet Stake

Footballer Tips has published roughly 2000 tips in the 7 months providing this service – an average of almost 300 tips per month. The number of tips per month has reduced however since the service started and over the most recent 3 months, the average has been around 180 tips per month.

At this current rate then we might expect a further 1000 tips over the next 6 months taking the total tips to 3,000.

The ELLR for 3000 tips at a 45% Win Rate is 14. Looking down the road you should therefore anticipate having a run of 14 or 15 losing bets in a row sometime during the next 6 months.

To anticipate this you might want to set your start-up Betting Bank Size a little higher at around 350 points (2.5*14*20).

Volatility

The less volatile a tipster’s performance is the more dependable their profits are month to month.

With high volatility, you get big profitable months and big losing months which makes the timing of when you join a tipster a bit of a gamble  – are you going to hit a good month or a bad month?

It is a little too early to assess the volatility of Footballer Tips with any real confidence. Seven profitable months from seven looks great and the variance of the ROI is a  low 0.39. But, for me, it will take at least another 3 months of results to have full confidence in this particular indicator.

Skill versus Chance

The statistical p-value is used to gauge if a tipster’s ROI could have been achieved simply through luck or chance rather than something else like skill or expertise.

The best p-value figures are typically less than 0.01%. Values this low are very strong evidence against luck or chance.

Footballer Tips’ p-value for the 7 months under analysis is currently 0.0000005% – clearly very strong evidence against this success being just luck – much more likely is the ROI being produced by Footballer Tips is due to skill or expertise.

Estimated Longest Losing Run

The bet Win Rate of 45% indicates an ELLR of around 13 based on the 2000 tips published in the last 7 months. This rises to maybe 14 or 15 over the next 1,000 tips/bets. In other words, you should expect and plan for 14 (or more) losing bets in a row.

Footballer Tips’ tips are consistently advised at 10 points each-way. This means a losing streak of 14 bets could equate to losing 140 points or units or £140 at £1/point.

If you started with a Betting Bank of 330 units and you hit a worst-case scenario of two longest runs one after the other (extremely unlikely but still possible) you would still be left with about 50 units to start over (330 minus  2 x 140).

In reality, though provided you keep regularly adjusting the £ value of your points based on your current bank of points then the actual real-money impact will be substantially less.

Risk/Reward

The ratio of Risk to Reward is a gauge of how investable a tipster is. Ideally, you want high reward (a high ROI) with very little risk (low volatility).

Footballer Tips’ current Risk/Reward figure is excellent. The 0.31 number (a ratio of 1 to 3) indicates there is much more reward on offer here than there is risk.

Time Commitment

There is an average of 9 tips per day.

Although that might sound like a lot the timing of these would make following this service relatively straightforward:

• over half of all tips are published in the morning between 8am and 12noon (UK time)
• about a third of the tips are published in the evenings.
• two-thirds of tips are posted over 6 hours ahead of the event.

Impact Of Long Losing Runs

Looking at the number of tips per day and the ELLR more broadly it would suggest it would only take a couple of days (18 bets) before you knew you’d hit that longest losing run (14 or more losing bets in a row).

Because this would happen so quickly it might be best to review your betting bank at the end of each day and adjust your £-per-point staking figure on a daily basis rather than weekly or monthly.

This would limit your losses when the losing streaks hit but it would also increase your profits during the winning periods.

This technical analysis has covered 7 months and over 2000 tips of Footballer Tips’ results from Aug’20 to Feb’21.

With 7 profitable months from 7, all the technical indicators suggest this is an extremely investable tipster to follow.

Footballer Tips is a low-risk high-reward investment requiring only a small bank to follow. The performance to date has been consistent and outstanding.

The recommendations would be:

• set aside a 350 point betting bank
• be prepared for a run of 15 losing bets in the next 6 months
• use 2% of bank per point staking
• adjust the £/point staking on a daily basis
• use 10 or more bookmakers and rotate through them
• test profitability using Betfair exchange

Find out more about Footballer Tips here