BILLY PICKS : 14% ROI Football Tips – ABANDONED

OVERVIEW :

BILLY-PICKS has been providing Football tips since September 2020 delivering a very good 14% ROI over 24 total months of tips. He has had 16 profitable months out of those 24 which is 67% success rate.

On average there’s 1 tip per day typically advised at 3 pt. which means, at £1 per point, you’d be betting around £3 per day.

Analysis of the results to date show at best there’s been a 95% probability of making a profit with BILLY-PICKS over every 5 consecutive months.

BILLY-PICKS

ROI:
 14%
Profit Mths:
 16 / 24
Expectation:
 5mth – 95%
Skill:
 LOW
ELLR:
 7
Risk:
 MEDIUM
Value:
 VERY GOOD
Stakes:
 REASONABLE
Betting Bank:
 60 points

TIPSTER SKILL FACTOR : LOW

The statistical p-value gives a measure of how likely a tipster’s results could be achieved purely by chance – have they just been lucky or is there some skill or expertise at play here?

BILLY-PICKS’s p-value is 0.0112 (to 4 dec. places) – in other words a 1% probability these results are down to luck.

This indicates that it is unlikely these results could be achieved by pure chance.

LOSING STREAKS : VERY SHORT

How long will losing streaks be?

Over 24 months there have been 566 tips. The Win Rate of these tips has been 39%. This gives an ELLR (Estimated Longest Losing Run) figure of 13. In other words you should have been prepared for 13 losing tips in a row over that number of tips.

With the current ROI and number of tips per day you should prepare for encountering the following:

  • Over the next month: At least one run of 7 losing tips.
  • In the next 3 months: At least one run of 9 losing tips.
  • During the next 6 months: At least one run of 11 losing tips.

TIPSTER RISK FACTOR : MEDIUM

The finance industry uses a coefficient of variation calculation to measure how risky an investment is. In simple terms its the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean.

But in even simpler terms its looking at the monthly ROI figures – are they always about the same or do they vary a lot?

If they vary a lot that means performance is volatile and volatility means risk.The coefficent of variation puts a specific number to this risk so that you can compare investments for risk but you can get a sense of how risky/volatile a tipster is just by looking at how much the ROI changes month-on-month.

BILLY-PICKS‘s coefficient of variation figure is 2.30 indicating performance is reasonably stable – risk is acceptable.

VALUE FOR MONEY : VERY GOOD

Does the subscription cost for this tipster represent value for money?

At £19 per month the subscription cost is low.

Having an ROI of 14% means each 1% of ROI is costing £1.39 which which makes these tips good value.

However, a 3-month subscription will make things relatively cheaper each month and you can always cancel the subscription and get some money back if things don’t work out.

BETTING STAKES : REASONABLE

How much am I likely to be betting every day?

£1.40 /pt. to cover subscription cost
Doing the calculations based on 14% ROI from 1 tips a day at the average advised stakes of 3.5 pt. you’d need to be betting at £1.40 per point just to cover the £19 subscription cost.

£8.60 /pt. to clear £100 profit
If you were looking to make somewhere in the region of £100 clear profit a month, over and above the subscription cost, the staking levels would need to be around £8.60 per point. This means betting in the region of £40 a day.

N.B. This is purely an indication of the scale of staking. Its never going to work out this way in real life – the ROI for the month will be different, the number of tips per day will be different and the advised points per tip can change.

BETTING BANK SIZE : 60pts

How much money do I need to start with?

The size of Betting Bank required to adequately follow a tipster is based on a combination of the average stake size and the ELLR.

The formula used here to calculate the size of Betting Bank is: Betting Bank Size = 2.5 x ELLR x Average Bet Stake

This will be enough to withstand a worst-case scenario of two (2) longest losing runs in quick sucession and still have something left (0.5) to continue betting.

The first month betting bank size for BILLY-PICKS would be around 60 points.

So, if you were betting at £8.60/pt stakes aiming to make £100 clear profit the Betting Bank would need to be around £550.

EXPECTANCY : POOR

How long before I can expect to make profit?

1 MONTH: If you’d followed BILLY-PICKS for 1 month at any time since the service started there was a 67% chance you’d make a profit. Looking at it another way you were 2 times more likely to have made money than lost money in any one month and your profit would have been 1 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 150 points profit versus an average loss of -110 points.

2 MONTH: Following for 2 consecutive months at any time since the service started there was a 74% chance you’d make a profit. You were 3 times more likely to have made money than lost money in those two months and your profit would have been 1 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 230 points profit versus an average loss of -160 points.

3 MONTH: If you’d followed for 3 consecutive months at any time since the service started there was a 82% chance you’d make a profit. You were 5 times more likely to have made money than lost money and your profit would have been 2 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 300 points profit versus an average loss of -200 points.

Consecutive Periods Total Made Profit Made Loss %Profitable Avg.Profit Avg.Loss Expectancy Profit Factor
any 1 month 24 16 8 67% 150 -110 63 1
any 2 months 23 17 6 74% 230 -160 128 1
any 3 months 22 18 4 82% 300 -200 209 1
any 4 months 21 19 2 90% 340 -160 292 2
any 5 months 20 19 1 95% 400 -50 377 8
any 6 months 19 18 1 95% 480 -40 452 12

Find out more about BILLY-PICKS here

 

 

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Rob

Rob

I'm Rob, I have an M.Sc. In Mathematics and Computer Science and I am the creator & writer of TheBetInvestor. I provide honest independent assessments of sports tipsters based on statistical and financial investment analysis. My aim is to find profitable tipsters and help you safely navigate the murky waters of the online sports tips world.

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