BIG ODDS VALUE : Horse racing tips at 42% ROI

OVERVIEW :

BIGODDSVALUE has been providing Horse racing tips since January 2022 producing an incredible 42% ROI with 10 profitable months from 14 total months tipping – providing a 71% chance of having a profitable month.

On average there’s 3 tips per day typically advised at 8 pt. which means, at £1 per point, you’d be betting around £24 per day.

Performance to date over different time periods suggest there’s a 100% likelihood of making a profit with BIGODDSVALUE during any consecutive 4 month period.

BIGODDSVALUE

ROI:
 42%
Profit Mths:
 10 / 14
Expectancy:
 4mth – 100%
Skill:
 AVERAGE
ELLR:
 25
Risk:
 HIGH
Value:
 VERY GOOD
Stakes:
 LOW
Betting Bank:
 490 points

TIPSTER SKILL FACTOR : AVERAGE

The statistical p-value gives a measure of how likely a tipster’s results could be achieved purely by chance – have they just been lucky or is there some skill or expertise at play here?

BIGODDSVALUE’s p-value is 0.0025 (to 4 dec. places) – in other words a 0% probability these results are down to luck.

This indicates that it is extremely unlikely these results could be achieved by pure chance.

LOSING STREAKS : LONG

How long will losing streaks be?

The all-time tip Win Rate over 1142 tips has been 17%.

You will always get losing runs but if this Win Rate and the volume of tips stays pretty much the same you should anticipate the following over the next periods of time:

  • In the next month: At least one run of 24 losing tips.
  • In the next 3 months: At least one run of 29 losing tips.
  • During the next 6 months: At least one run of 34 losing tips.

TIPSTER RISK FACTOR : HIGH

The finance industry uses a coefficient of variation calculation to measure how risky an investment is. In simple terms its the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean.

But in even simpler terms its looking at the monthly ROI figures – are they always about the same or do they vary a lot?

If they vary a lot that means performance is volatile and volatility means risk.The coefficent of variation puts a specific number to this risk so that you can compare investments for risk but you can get a sense of how risky/volatile a tipster is just by looking at how much the ROI changes month-on-month.

BIGODDSVALUE‘s coefficient of variation figure is 2.56 indicating performance is volatile and risk is high.

VALUE FOR MONEY : VERY GOOD

Does the subscription cost for this tipster represent value for money?

At £19 per month the subscription cost is low.

With an ROI of 42% this means each 1% of ROI costs £0.46 which is great value.

However, taking out a 3-month subscription will make things relatively cheaper per month and you can always cancel the subscription and get a refund if things don’t work out.

BETTING STAKES : LOW

How much am I likely to be betting every day?

The following figures are based on current performance and are provided only to give a sense of scale regarding betting stakes.

To cover subscription costs : £0.10 per point
Based on this 42% ROI from 3 tips a day at the average advised stakes of 8 points you’d need to be betting at £0.10 per point to cover the £19 subscription cost.

To clear £100 profit : £0.50 per point
To make somewhere in the region of £100 clear profit a month, over and above the subscription cost, the staking levels would need to be around £0.50 per point. At this level you’d be betting in the region of £15 a day.

BETTING BANK SIZE : 500pts

How much money do I need to start with?

The size of Betting Bank required to adequately follow a tipster is based on a combination of the average stake size and the ELLR.

The formula used here to calculate the size of Betting Bank is: Betting Bank Size = 2.5 x ELLR x Average Bet Stake

This will be enough to withstand a worst-case scenario of two (2) longest losing runs in quick sucession and still have something left (0.5) to continue betting.

The first month betting bank size for BIGODDSVALUE would be around 500 points.

So, if you were betting at £0.50/pt stakes aiming to make £100 clear profit the Betting Bank would need to be around £200.

EXPECTANCY : AVERAGE

How long before I can expect to make profit?

1 MONTH: If you’d followed BIGODDSVALUE for 1 month at any time since the service started there was a 71% chance you’d make a profit. Looking at it another way you were 3 times more likely to have made money than lost money in any one month and your profit would have been 7 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 810 points profit versus an average loss of -120 points.

2 MONTH: Following for 2 consecutive months at any time since the service started there was a 77% chance you’d make a profit. You were 3 times more likely to have made money than lost money in those two months and your profit would have been 9 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 1430 points profit versus an average loss of -160 points.

3 MONTH: If you’d followed for 3 consecutive months at any time since the service started there was a 92% chance you’d make a profit. You were 11 times more likely to have made money than lost money and your profit would have been 18 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 1770 points profit versus an average loss of -100 points.

Consecutive Periods Total Made Profit Made Loss %Profitable Avg.Profit Avg.Loss Expectancy Profit Factor
any 1 month 14 10 4 71% 810 -120 544 6
any 2 months 13 10 3 77% 1430 -160 1063 8
any 3 months 12 11 1 92% 1770 -100 1614 17
any 4 months 11 11 0 100% 2290 0 2290 2290
any 5 months 10 10 0 100% 3060 0 3060 3060
any 6 months 9 9 0 100% 3720 0 3720 3720

Find out more about BIGODDSVALUE here

 

 

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Rob

Rob

I'm Rob, I have an M.Sc. In Mathematics and Computer Science and I am the creator & writer of TheBetInvestor. I provide honest independent assessments of sports tipsters based on statistical and financial investment analysis. My aim is to find profitable tipsters and help you safely navigate the murky waters of the online sports tips world.

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