BETTER BETTOR : 20% ROI and 9 consecutive months of profit

Return On Investment

The all-time ROI over the 25 months of the Better Bettor service has been 10% which for a football tipster is much better than average.

What really catches the eye though is that the ROI over the last 6 months and the most recent 3-months has effectively doubled.

Each £1 you invest is now making twice as much profit than it did a year ago.

Interestingly, the number of tips being published per month has dropped.

Previously there would have been 60 to 100 tips a month. But over the last 9 months it’s been an average of 34 tips per month – practically half the number of tips.

It may be he’s being more selective with the tips or there might be no correlation at all between fewer tips and better ROI.

Either way, with less effort and more profit, it seems to be paying off.

Return on Capital

The recommended initial Betting Bank for Better Bettor would be 280 points.

Following this tipster, with that recommended Betting Bank, the Return On Capital (ROC) figure is almost 700%

In other words, your original bank of 280 units would have grown to over 1,900 units.

In real money terms starting in month one with £280 and £1/point bets (£10 stake per bet) and adjusting your stakes for the next calendar month based on 3.5% (10/280=3.5%) of your existing bank then your £280 would have become £6,200.

This represents a growth of 22 times your original bank over the full 25 months.

If you’d joined just 6 months ago you would have doubled your Betting Bank.

If the next 6-months mirror the success of the previous 6-months your Betting Bank would end up 6 times what you started with – your £100 would become £600 within 6 months.

Consistency

There have been 20 profitable months out for the 25 months of service.

An average losing month lost -33 points. An average profitable month made +90 points profit.

The first 9 months of Better Bettor was a consecutive 9 months of profit.

The most recent 9 months have also been 9 months of consecutive profit.

The 7 months in between however were a bit hit and miss – you had a 50/50 chance of either hitting a winning month or a losing month.

But what is interesting to me is the average number of tips per month during that period.

During this rocky 7-month period the average number of tips per month rose to 90 tips per month – previously it had been around 70.

By comparison, the average number of tips per month is now down to around 34 and there have been 9 months of profit.

Was there an attempt to scale up the profit by increasing the number of tips that simply didn’t pay off? And things have now reverted to what was successful early on?

It may become clearer over the next 3 months should Better Bettor hit 12 consecutive months of profit.

Value for Money

Better Bettor is good value for money.

if you are shopping for ROI then at Better Bettor each 1% of ROI costs £1.90 based on his overall ROI or under £1 if you base it on his last 6-month performance.

Staking

Better Bettor tips are advised at a standard 10 points.

If you were betting at £1 per point this would be £10 per bet at the beginning and you should, of course, increase/decrease your stakes on a monthly basis based on the size of your betting bank.

Betting Bank

The size of the Betting Bank required to adequately follow a tipster is based on a combination of the average stake size and the Estimated Longest Losing Run (ELLR) which, in turn, is based on the Win Rate of the tipster’s bets.

From a risk-management aspect, your Betting Bank should have enough in it to suffer a worst-case scenario of two of these longest losing runs in a row and still have some left to continue betting. (This is where the 2.5 comes from in the formula below)

The formula I use to calculate the size of Betting Bank is:

Betting Bank Size = 2.5  x  ELLR  x  Average Bet Stake

Better Bettor’s win rate – how often tips win – is 52% based on his total of 1,650 tips so far. The current ELLR figure is 11.

Looking forward to the next 2000 tips the ELLR for a Win rate of 52% for 3000 tips is around 12 i.e. you should anticipate a losing run of 12 losing bets (or possibly more – remember real-life is different to statistics).

The fixed 10 point bet stakes therefore, suggest a start-up Betting Bank, if you are starting right now, in the region of 300 points (2.5*12*10) – assuming average risk.

Volatility

Based on the calculated Coefficient of Variance, Better Bettor’s performance is reasonably stable.

If you consider the middle bumpy 7-months as untypical, which I’m minded to do, then the performance is very stable.

The less volatile a tipster’s performance is the more dependable their profits are.

Timing when you join a stable tipster is less important than timing when to join a volatile tipster.

With high volatility, you get big profitable months and big losing months which makes the timing of when you join a tipster a bit of a gamble  – when you join are you going to hit a good month or a bad month?

Skill versus Chance

The statistical p-value is used to gauge if a tipster’s ROI could have been achieved simply through luck or chance rather than something else like skill or expertise.

The best p-value figures are typically less than 0.01% indicating very strong evidence against luck or chance.

Better Bettor’s p-value is currently even less than that at 0.008%, which confirms there is very strong evidence that the ROI being produced by this tipster is not due to chance.

Estimated Longest Losing Run

The bet Win Rate of 52% indicates an ELLR of around 11. This rises to 12 over the next 1500 tips/bet. In other words, you should expect and plan for 12 (or more) losing bets in a row.

All Better Bettor’s tips are advised at 10 points (or units). This means a losing streak of 12 bets could equate to losing 120 points or units or £120 at £1/point.

If you started with a Betting Bank of 300 units and you hit the worst-case scenario of two longest runs one after the other separated by only one winner (extremely unlikely but still possible) you would still be left with at least 60 units to start over (300 minus  2 x 120).

But provided you keep regularly adjusting the £ value of your points based on your current bank of points then the actual real-money impact will be much less.

Risk/Reward

Ideally, you want high reward (a high ROI) with very little risk (low volatility). The ratio of Risk to Reward is a gauge of how investable a tipster is.

Typically, higher reward typically comes with higher risk.

Better Bettor’s current Risk/Reward figure is an acceptable 1.69 and is on the better side of the 2.5 average for all tipsters we monitor.

Time Commitment

The number of bets you’ll need to place each day is low – maybe one or two. So the actual amount of time you’ll spend placing bets is very little.

However, the tips are based on value which has two implications:

1. tips can arrive at any time from early morning to early evening so you need to react quickly when you receive tip notifications
2. you need to place the bets asap before the odds drop and the value disappears

Better Bettor’s tips, like many tipsters tips, are based on value which means the bookmaker’s odds are “wrong”. But they won’t be wrong for long. Bookmakers continually adjust odds based on the bets they take to balance their books to make their profits.

Bookmakers Used

The top bookmakers used for these tips have been Bet365, Pinnacle, Unibet, Betfair and Skybet.

It’s encouraging to see that Better Bettor is using Pinnacle, a sharp bookmaker, for 20% of his tips. And he’s making a 3.2% ROI on them.

Pinnacle is the world’s sharpest bookmaker. Their odds are the most accurate in the industry and they operate at a profit margin of only 1% – 2%. The fact that Better Bettor tips make an ROI of 3.2% is significant.

The others are “soft” bookmakers which means if you keep winning, at some stage, your stakes are likely to be severely limited or your account will be closed.

This is the same problem for all tipsters and betters.

Avoiding getting limited is something you will need to take precautions to avoid especially if you continue to win. Spreading your betting across several different bookmakers and rotating the bookmakers used on a regular basis can help. Using a Betting Exchange or a Bet Broker are also possible options providing you can get the odds required to keep this service profitable.

Impact Of Long Losing Runs

Looking at the ELLR more broadly, if the average number of bets is 1 – 2 per day, and the ELLR is 12  it would take a couple of weeks before you know you’ve hit that longest losing run.

You might consider adjusting your £-per-point figure based on your Betting Bank on a fortnightly rather than a monthly basis.

Better Bettor is a worthy addition to the Top 10 Tipsters List.

The service ticks all the Key Performance Indicators and his recent performance with 9 consecutive profitable months makes Better Bettor a very investable proposition.

You’re paying a low £19 per month for an ROI of 20% measured on current performance over the last 6 months

It’s a low-risk medium-return service with an affordable betting bank and short losing runs.

Better Bettor makes it into the Top 10 Tipsters list.

Find out more about Better Bettor here