I spotted Batibet as a potential “hidden gem” back in May this year and he’s been on my radar ever since.
Now with a full 6 months of tipping under his belt and approaching 2000 tips its time for a full technical assessment.
The potential shown back in May appears to have become a reality with 6 profitable months from 6 since the service started in Feb’20.
A headline ROI of 9.3% and a subscription cost of £19/month.
- Good ROI
- 6 consecutive profitable months
- Value for money service
- Small betting bank required
- Not set-and-forget betting
- Lots of bets so some effort involved
Overview of service
Batibet is predominantly a football tipster.
He does tip in a wide range of sports including basketball, e-sports, ice-hockey. tennis etc.but these are in small numbers.
Most of the tips (85%) are for football and one-in-5 (20%) of these tips are doubles or trebles using short-priced favourites.
The doubles and trebles have returned a small profit but its much less than the singles tips.
Tips are published right across the 24 hours of the day although half are posted between 8 in the morning and 4 in the afternoon. And forty percent (40%) of the tips are published over 12 hours ahead of the event.
This is a typical profile of a tipster who looks for value in the odds since value can appear (and just as easily disappear) at any time.
Average odds are around 1.95. Average stakes are 1 point/unit per tip. The Win Rate is sitting at 54%. And the ROI is 9.3%
Return On Investment
Batibet has been publishing tips for 6 months now between Feb’20 and Jul’20.
The 6-month, 3-month, and 1-month figures periods suggest a consistency that may well be sustained longer-term. Particularly so if this tipster is finding value bets.
Return on Capital
Following this tipster, with a recommended Betting Bank of 50 units, the Return On Capital (ROC) figure is a truly impressive 600%.
In other words, your original bank of 50 units would have grown to almost 350 units in those 6 months.
At Jul’20 there have been 6 profitable months from 6 months of tips – zero losing months – a 100% record.
The first start-up month of tipping only had around a tenth of the tips of other months and its ROI of 15% is probably also untypical.
June had the highest number of tips in a single month so far at 471 but the ROI took a dip to just under 3%.
The other 4 months though have a solidly consistent look about them ranging between 9% and 14%.
You could have joined this service at the beginning of any month and come out the end with the subscription costs easily covered plus a lot of extra cash in your pocket.
Value for Money
A month’s subscription to Batibet currently costs only £19.
That means a single 1% of ROI cost a few pence over £2 which is pretty average for Tipstrr tipster services.
The size of the Betting Bank required to adequately follow a tipster is based on a combination of the average stake size and the Estimated Longest Losing Run (ELLR) which, in turn, is based on Win Rate of the tipster’s bets.
From a risk-management aspect your Betting Bank should have enough in it to suffer a worst-case scenario of two of these longest losing runs in a row and still have some left to continue betting. (This is where the 2.5 comes to from in the formula below)
The formula I use is Betting Bank Size = 2.5 x ELLR x Average Bet Stake
Batibet’s Win Rate – how often tips win – is 54%.
The ELLR for a Win rate of 54% is 10 i.e. you should anticipate a losing run of 10 losing bets (at least).
The average bet stake is 1.72 points or units.
This would, therefore, suggest a start-up Betting Bank in the region of 50 units (2.5*10*1.72) – assuming average risk.
Advised stakes on the Batibet tips range from 1 to 10 points and the average is 1.72 points but most of them (75%) are 1 point.
There have been somewhere between 10 – 12 tips each day which means an average day would mean betting around 20 points or units (12*1.72).
If you were betting at £1 per point this would be £20 of bets on an average day using a Betting Bank of £50
Only having a £50 bank and risking £20, almost half of it, on your first day of betting may sound a little scary that’s for sure. But the statistics and the risk management support the approach.
And of course, remember that the £20 is not being bet all at once. The tips are spread throughout the day and 40% of the tips are published over 12 hours ahead of the event. So there will be a continual flow of money through the betting bank as you cycle through the tips and bets with winners and losers.
If you were a little uncomfortable about it, because the Betting Bank is so low, it could be easily increased to say 100 points. That would survive 4 longest losing runs in a row and still leave you 20 points to continue betting.
The Coefficient of Variance gauges the volatility or variance of a tipster’s performance.
If a tipster’s performance is volatile it means your monthly profits are not dependable.
With high volatility you get big profitable months and big losing months and just like Forrest Gump’s box of chocolates, you’ll never know which one you’re going to get.
You can see Batibet’s stability reflected in the profit graph which has deviated very little from the upward growth trendline over the period.
Skill versus Chance
The statistical p-value is used to gauge if a tipsters results could be just down to luck or chance rather than something else like skill or expertise.
The best p-value figures are typically less than 0.01% (lower is better).
Batibet’s p-value is currently 0.0008%, so there is very strong evidence that the ROI being produced by this tipster is not due to chance.
Estimated Longest Losing Run
The bet Win Rate of 54% indicates an ELLR of 10. In other words, you should expect and plan for 10 (or more) losing bets in a row.
Most of Batibet’s tips are advised at 1 unit/point but the average stake is 1.7 units. This means a losing streak of 10 bets could equate to losing 17 units – £17 at £1/unit stakes or £85 at £5/unit stakes.
If you started with a Betting Bank of 50 units and you hit the worst-case scenario of two longest runs one after the other separated by only one winner (extremely unlikely but still possible) you would still be left with at least 16 units to start over (50 minus 2 x 17).
If the 56% Win Rate is maintained the ELLR is not likely to change much over the next couple of years. It may rise to 11 or maybe 12 as the total number of bets increases.
The Risk/Reward figure is a gauge of how investable a tipster is. The value should be as low as possible.
Ideally, you want high reward with very little risk. However, higher reward (higher ROI) typically comes with higher risk.
Batibet’s current Risk/Reward figure is a very low 0.44 and is in the top 10% of all Tipstrr tipsters we track.
This is not a set-and-forget tipster service. You’re going to have to keep alert to the tips as they appear throughout the day.
On average you’ll get 11 tips per day to deal with but it could be as many as 20.
This is quite a large number of tips every day and the fact that they can appear basically any time during the day could make following this tipster a bit of problematic.
You’ll want to get your bets on as quickly as possible to get the best odds. And depending on your circumstances this may not always be possible.
The top bookmakers used for these tips have been Bet365 and Pinnacle. Over half of the tips are with these bookies.
Bet365 is “soft” bookmaker which means if you keep winning at them, at some stage, your account is likely to be limited and your bets will be limited to pennies.
Pinnacle, on the other hand, does not penalize winners so it’s a real positive to see them as one of the top bookmakers used.
Avoiding getting limited is something you will need to take precautions to avoid especially if you continue to win. Spreading your betting across several different bookmakers and rotating the bookmakers used may help. Using a Betting Exchange or a Bet Broker are possible options providing you can get the odds required to keep this service profitable.
Impact Of Long Losing Runs
Looking at the ELLR more broadly, if the average number of bets is 11 per day, and the ELLR is 10 it won’t take long before you know you’ve hit that longest losing run.
Recovery should be quick though and adjusting the £-per-point figure downwards when you have loses is less of a consideration.
If you’re looking for consistent profits and have the flexibility to place bets any time during the day then Batibet fits the bill.
Apart from the inconvenience of placing lots of bets across the day all the indications are that Batibet is a solid performer worthy of following.
At 9.3% ROI it’s not the biggest ROI we’ve seen but it’s reasonable enough and the current £19/month subscription cost is in the lowest band.
Where Batibet really does score highly is in consistency.
The low ELLR and a very low variance figure means there’ll be no big highs and lows to deal with.
The ROI statistics breakdown shows Football ROI is 11.4% and Basketball ROI is 16.5% but the ROI from multiples tips (doubles, trebles etc.) is a low 1.4%.
There may be a possibility therefore to improve the ROI being produced by this service.
You could ignore the tips for accumulators, doubles and trebles and instead divert the money you would have placed on the these multiples tips and use that money to increase the stakes on the much more profitable singles tips. This could produce much bigger profits.
If consistency is your kind of approach to betting then Batibet may be right for you. Find out more about Batibet here