Basket Tipster : consistent profits from basketball tips

Sports & Markets

Basket Tipster as you might guess from the name is dedicated to providing betting tips for basketball. This naturally covers NBA in the United States but there are a great number of tips for many other leagues from across the world including the Euroleague and Greece.

Asian Handicap and Over/Unders markets dominate the tips with four out of every five tips in one of these markets. About 8% of tips are accumulators, doubles, trebles etc. with the remainder in the 1X2 and 12 markets.

Tipping & Betting Profile

Basket Tipster publishes an average of around 15 tips per week so you can expect about 2 per day.

The average stake is just over 7 points per tip so, at 2 bets per day that would be an outlay of around 14 points per day.

Following these tips at £1 per point stakes would just about cover the £39 subscription costs. You need to be staking more than that to make any kind of real profit.

At £2 per point, this would equate to £28 of bets on an average day. With current performance, this could produce an average return of £76 profit per month or £37 real profit after paying the monthly subscription cost.

At £5/point stakes, it would look something like £70 of bets per day with a monthly return of £190 on average which would be about £150 clear profit after subscription costs.

Follower Involvement

Basket Tipster is not a set-and-forget type tipster where you can place all your bets for the day in one go and then get on with the rest of your day.

There appear to be two main periods during the day when most tips are published.

The first is four hours in the afternoon between 12pm and 4 pm (UK time).

The second is the 8 hours between 8pm early evening and 4am the following morning (UK time).

If you live in the UK you’ll probably be asleep for a lot of this second period and from the stats it looks like you could maybe miss about 20% of all tips notifications during this time.

If you live in the US you’re probably going to be OK.

But if you miss notifications or can’t get bets on fairly quickly you’re probably not going to get the same odds as provided by the tipster. If odds are worse then your profits are going to be less.

Established

Basket Tipster has been in operation for 11 full months since December 2018 and in that time has published over 650 tips. He has a 100% record of winning months – 11 months from 11 have been profitable.

And not just small profits – its been 20 points, 30 points, 40 points. The worst month was 17 points profit.

This is a solid long-term performance and provides ample data to perform reliable statistical analysis.

Return On Investment (ROI)

At the time of this analysis Basket Tipster’s overall ROI over 11 months is a respectable 8.8% if you following his advised stakes. This ROI figure drops slightly if you ignored that and simply used level stakes e.g. £5 bet for every tip. It’s therefore worth following his advised stakes as it provides a better return.

Over the 11 months, ROI has ranged from a high of 74.1% in July 2018 to a low of 1.8% April 2019.

Looking at the ROI over the last 12-months, 6-months and most recent 3-month periods gives a good insight into the consistency of a tipster. It can also give an indication of any possible upward or downward trend.

Basket Tipster’s figures show a solid consistency. The 12-month figure shows an average of 38 points profit/month. The previous 6-months was 29 points profit/month. And the most recent 3-months returned an average of 30 points profit/month.

Estimated Longest Losing Run (ELLR)

Basket Tipster’s ELLR currently stands at 8 and has been that figure for the past eight months (April – November 2019).  This means you should anticipate having 8 losing bets in a row at some time.  Compared with some other tipsters, particularly racing tipsters whose Strike Rates are much lower, eight is a small number.

Taking a broader view on losing runs, with an average of 2 tips per day, this could mean you could have 4 losing days in a row.

Skillful or Lucky (P-VALUE)

The statistical p-value reflects the strength of evidence that the ROI being produced by a tipster is due to their skill/expertise or could just be due to chance.

Basket Tipster’s p-value of 0.3% indicates there is strong evidence that the ROI being delivered by this tipster is not the result of chance but more likely due to skill.

Additionally, this p-value has been steadily getting smaller since Basket Tipster started his tipping service.

Betting Bank Required

The worst-case scenario that you should plan for is that as soon as you join any tipster they suffer their longest losing run followed by one winner followed by another longest losing run. Your Betting Bank needs to be big enough to cope with this and still have something left to effectively start all over.

An ELLR of 8 suggests your betting bank should be able to cover 16 losing bets (2 x 8) and still have some money left to keep betting.

A sensible figure for a betting bank might, therefore, be three times the ELLR multiplied by the stake points.

Basket Tipster’s average advised stakes are slightly over 7 points. This would suggest a betting bank of around 160 points (3 times 8 times 7) to cover the worst-case scenario.

£1 per point stakes would barely cover the subscription costs so you would need to be betting at maybe £2 per point or above to make any kind of a profit.

At £2 per point stakes, this would set your starting betting bank at £320. At £5 per point, you would need an £800 betting bank.

Risk/Reward (R/R)

The more a tipsters ROI varies month-by-month from the average ROI, the more volatile or risky the tipster’s service is. This risk is balanced against the tipster’s ROI which is the reward we are hoping to get.

Dividing the risk figure by the reward figure gives us a Risk/Reward factor that we can use to compare tipsters. The combination of low risk and high reward is the ideal combination. So the smaller the Risk/Reward value is the better.

Basket’s Tipsters Risk/Reward figure is 1.75 and can be classed as average.

Value for Money (VfM)

Subscription fees for tipsters can vary widely as can their ROI figures. This indicator reflects how much each single percentage point of ROI costs in money terms.  Its useful in comparing tipsters.

Basket Tipster’s monthly subscription currently costs £39. His average ROI is 8.8%. Therefore you are paying £4.43 for each percentage point of ROI (£39 divided by 8.8). This is relatively expensive compared to the average of £2 – £3.

Compare it, for example with tipster SVB Tips, a 12.9% ROI service costing £19 per month. Basket Tipster’s £4.43 is three times SVB Tips’ figure of £1.47.

If this was your only factor in deciding which tipster to sign up to then there would be no contest – SVB Tips wins hands down.

But it’s not the only factor you should consider. You should consider all of the criteria in this analysis and even throw in some of your own. Only then can you make a fully considered well-balanced decision.

Conclusion

Perfect as a foundation for a tipster portfolio.

Basket Tipster is not delivering a big Return-on-Investment but is providing steady consistent profits from a low-risk service. I believe this is the type of tipster that is perfect as a foundation for a tipster portfolio – unspectacular but delivering steady regular profits month after month.

There are however a couple of negatives – a relatively high subscription cost and it’s not a set-and-forget service.

Personally, the consistency of this tipster outweighs the relatively high subscription cost. Not being a set-and-forget service means you would ideally need to be able to place bets at any time during the day. For some, this may be an issue.

Find out more about Basket Tipster.

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