ASENLV : low cost startup, low risk and steady ROI

Sports & Markets

ASENLV covers predominantly football tips but has been dabbling, and very successfully dabbling, in e-sports betting over the last few months (24% ROI).

The bulk of the tips, over 70%, are in the 1X2 and Asian Handicap markets with a further 13% in the Over/Unders market.

Tipping & Betting Profile

ASENLV publishes a relatively large number of tips per week.  An average week sees over 100 tips so you need to be prepared for placing 10 to 20 bets per day.

The average stake is just under 8 points/units per tip so that equates to betting 80 to 160 points per day.
I imagine it would be difficult for most of us to follow these tips at anything above £2 per point and personally certainly not at £5/point – £400 to £900 in bets per day is outside my comfort zone.

Following these tips at £1 per point stakes would mean placing an average of £80 to £160 of bets per day. Based on the last 6 months’ performance that would have produced either £1100 or £2200 profit in total – an average of £190 to £280 profit per month.

Follower Involvement

Ninety percent (90%) of tips are published between 8am and 4pm with a further 10% posted after that between 4pm and 8pm.

Almost 75% of tips are published between 1 and 6 hours ahead of the event with a further 22% posted 6-12 hours ahead.

Tips published 1-3 hours ahead of the event appear to do less well producing less profit and lower ROI than those posted 3-12 hours ahead of the event.

The small number of tips published over 24 hours ahead of the event have done particularly poorly and have generated only loses.

Established

ASENLV has been in operation since February 2019.

The first month of February was a losing month as was Oct’19.

But every other month so far has produced profits of typically 3 digits ranging from 93 points in Sep’19 to 462 points profit in Jul’19.

I class this as strong performance over the medium term.

Return On Investment (ROI)

At the time of this analysis, ASENLV’s overall ROI is a very reasonable 7.4% following the advised stakes. However, this ROI figure increases to a tad over 8% if you ignored the advised stakes and simply used level stakes.

The ROI over different recent periods also looks good.

ROI over the last 12-months has been 6.4%. Over the previous 6-months is was 8.2%. And most recent 3-month ROI has been even higher at 9.0% ROI. This is a good indicator of an improving trend for this tipster.

Estimated Longest Losing Run (ELLR)

ASENLV’s overall ELLR currently stands at 15. This is a statistically calculated number based on the Strike Rate (Win Rate).

WIth ASENLV’s overall Win Rate of 46% this means you could expect to suffer a run of 15 – 17 losing bets in a row having placed 7000 bets.

The Win Rate has been fairly consistent month-on-month and has ranged between 45% and 52% with an average of 49% over the last 6 months.

Taking a broader view on losing runs, with an average of 15 tips per day, this would suggest the number of losing days in row would be very short – perhaps 2 or 3.

Skillful or Lucky (P-VALUE)

The statistical p-value reflects the strength of evidence that the ROI being produced by a tipster is due to their skill/expertise or whether it could just be due to chance.

ASENLV’s p-value of 0.0001% indicates very strong evidence that the ROI being delivered by this tipster is not the result of chance but more likely due to their expertise.

Betting Bank Required

The worst-case scenario that you should plan for is that as soon as you join any tipster they suffer their longest losing run followed by one winner followed by another longest losing run. Your Betting Bank needs to be big enough to cope with this and still have something left to effectively start all over.

An ELLR of 15 suggests your betting bank should be able to cover 30 losing bets (2 x 15) and still have some money left to keep betting.

A sensible figure for a betting bank might, therefore, be between two-and-a-half to three times the ELLR multiplied by the stake points.

ASENLV’s average advised stakes are just slightly under 8 points which would suggest a betting bank of around 280 – 300 points to cover the worst-case scenario.

Risk/Reward (R/R)

The more a tipster’s ROI varies month-by-month from the average ROI, the more volatile or risky the tipster’s service is. This risk is balanced against the tipster’s ROI which is the reward we are hoping to get.

Dividing the risk figure by the reward figure gives us a Risk/Reward factor that we can use to compare tipsters. The combination of low risk and high reward is the ideal combination. So the smaller the Risk/Reward value is the better.

ASENLV’s Risk/Reward figure is 1.09 and can be classed as very good.

Value for Money (VfM)

Subscription fees for tipsters can vary widely as can their ROI figures. This indicator reflects how much each single percentage point of ROI costs in money terms.  Its useful in comparing tipsters.

ASENLV’s monthly subscription currently costs a mere £19. His average ROI is 7.4%. Therefore you are paying £2.57 for each percentage point of ROI (£19 divided by 7.4). This falls within the average band of £2 – £3.

Conclusion

Overall, ASENLV is a solid performer and would be a good foundation for a new tipster portfolio or a useful addition to an existing one.

The ASENLV service is delivering a reasonably good Return-on-Investment and providing steady consistent profits from a low-risk and low-cost service. The performance profile makes it an ideal candidate for inclusion into a balanced tipster portfolio.

Find out more about ASENLV.

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