Short Losing Runs
Value for Money
- Over 1100 tips
- 9 winning months from 11 (at level stakes)
- Reasonable ROI
- Medium-risk / Medium-reward
- Good Win Rate
- Short losing runs
- Good skill indicator
- Not set-and-forget betting
- Quite high cost per %ROI
Summary: Focused on football and ice hockey tips from across the world leagues but with a particular interest in the Kontinental Hockey League and Latvian ice hockey leagues.
- football and ice-hockey tips
- 20 – 30 tips per week
- average 100 points profit per month
- tips published across the day
Sports & Markets
Ninety percent (90%) of tips from Alias Core are football and ice-hockey with small numbers for basketball, tennis and handball.
The main betting markets are Asian Handicap (AH), Over/Under and 1X2 which accounts for 3 tips out of 4 (75%).
Tipping & Betting Profile
Alias Core publishes an average of around 25 tips per week so you can expect about 3 – 4 per day.
Advised stakes average about 8.5 points but do range from 2 points up to 10 points. Most tips are advised at 10 points.
Interestingly ignoring the advised stake and betting these tips at level-stakes produces a better ROI.
With tips being published throughout 18 hours of the day this is not a set-and-forget service.
Almost a third (32%) of all tips have been posted in the mornings between 8am and 12pm (UK time) with a further 18% posted in four hours in the run-up to 8am.
You would need to be permanently online to have any chance of catching all notifications and get your bets on at early prices. Considering you do need to sleep and you probably have a day job to do that’s never going to happen.
There’s a couple of saving graces here. There’s no indication this is a service based on “value” and nearly all tips have odds between 1.70 and 2.39. Those short odds I suspect are not going to drop that much to have a significant impact on profits. Some odds may even get bigger by the time you can place the bet. So it may well be it balances itself out.
Alias Core has been in operation since January 2019. It’s early Dec’19 as I write this post so by the end of this month it will have a full 12 months of operation.
Return On Investment (ROI)
Using advised stakes Alias Core’s overall ROI over 11 months of operation has been a respectable 9.3% with 4 losing months in that 11 only one of which was a significant loss.
An average winning month was 165 points, The average losing month was a loss of -52 points.
Interestingly, things look better simply using level-stakes. Only 2 losing months instead of 4 and an increased ROI of 10.4%
Looking at the ROI over the last 12-months, 6-months and most recent 3-month periods gives a good insight into the consistency of a tipster. It can also give an indication of any possible upward or downward trend.
Alias Core’s all-time ROI figure is 9.3%. ROI over the last 6 months period it dipped to 7.6% but has recovered dramatically to 12.7% over the most recent 3-months.
Estimated Longest Losing Run (ELLR)
The average win rate is just shy of 54% which sets Alias Core’s Estimated Longest Losing Run at 10.
In other words, you could expect to suffer a run of around 10 losing bets in a row. At an average of 3 – 4 tips per day, this would equate to 2 to 3 losing days in a row.
This is actually very good. And it will mean you only need a small betting bank.
Betting Bank Required
The worst-case scenario that you should plan for is that as soon as you join any tipster they suffer their longest losing run followed by one winner followed by another longest losing run. Your Betting Bank needs to be big enough to cope with this and still have something left to effectively start all over.
An ELLR of 10 suggests your betting bank should be able to cover 20 losing bets (2 x 49) and still have some money left to keep betting.
A sensible figure for a betting bank might, therefore, be three times the ELLR multiplied by the stake points.
Alias Core’s average advised stake is 8.69 points so this would suggest a betting bank of around 260 points (3 times 10 times 8.69) to cover the worst-case scenario.
Here’s how betting at £1 per point stakes might be summed up based on this tipster’s all-time performance. The figures are rounded for simplicity.
Betting bank required £250. Bet £8 on each of 4 tips per day is betting £900 over a month. With an average 9% ROI an average months profit would be £90. Paying the £19 monthly subscription leaves £71 real profit.
Skillful or Lucky (P-VALUE)
The statistical p-value reflects the strength of evidence that the ROI being produced by a tipster is due to their skill/expertise or could just be due to chance.
Alias Core’s p-value of just under 0.02% indicates there is very strong evidence that the ROI being produced by this service is not the result of chance but more likely due to the tipster’s expertise.
The more a tipsters ROI varies month-by-month from the average ROI, the more volatile or risky the tipster’s service is. This risk is balanced against the tipster’s ROI which is the reward we are hoping to get.
Dividing the risk figure by the reward figure gives us a Risk/Reward factor that we can use to compare tipsters. The combination of low risk and high reward is the ideal combination. So the smaller the Risk/Reward value is the better.
Alias Core’s Risk/Reward figure is 0.64 which is fairly average.
Value for Money (VfM)
Subscription fees for tipsters can vary widely as can their ROI figures. This indicator reflects how much each single percentage point of ROI costs in real money terms and is useful in comparing tipsters.
Alias Core’s monthly subscription currently costs £19. The all-time average ROI is 9.3%. Therefore you are paying £2.10 for each percentage point of ROI (£19 divided by 9.3).
The best VfM figures are £1.50 or less. At £2.10 per percentage point, this puts Alias Core in the average band of between £2 and £3.
Alias Core is a skillful tipster who is producing solid results.
Although tips are posted during the whole day they are short odds and it shouldn’t be difficult to pick up the same odds or close to if you can’t get the bet on right away.
A 9% ROI may look unattractive compared with other tipsters but ROI is only one factor you need to look at when choosing a tipster.
Balance this against the very attractive short losing runs and small betting bank requirements of this service.
My own personal opinion would be to take out a 3-month subscription of Alias Core at £45 (= £15/mth) which I can cancel at any time and bet at £10 level stakes (for better ROI).
On a betting bank of £250 and based on performance figures so far, this could produce £100 profit per month after subscription fees.
Find out more about Alias Core.