AKKA MASTER : A mug punter making solid profits?

Overview of service

Summary: AKKA Master does football doubles with average odds of around 4 (3/1).

There are generally one or two tips a day posted mostly in the late afternoon/early evening UK time.

The matches involved are typically several days away from kickoff.

The markets chosen have been predominantly Match Winner and Asian Handicap.

PROs

  • 11 profitable months from 12
  • Monthly profit is pretty consistent
  • Little effort required to manage the one or two tips per day

CONs

  • Relatively large betting bank required
  • Monthly ROI varies a lot
  • Cost per %ROI is relatively high

NOTE: Whilst there may apparently be more negatives than positives highlighted in this analsysis I recommend keeping an open mind as you read on before coming to your own conclusion on AKKA Master.

PROFIT

Return On Investment (ROI)

AKKA Master completed a full 12 months of tipping in August’21 with only 1 losing month in February.

The average ROI is a reasonable 7% – 8% however it varies a lot month on month. The actual profit though is much more consistent.

The ROI in the profitable months has been very wide-ranging between 3.1% to 83.5% in Jun’21 although there were only 4 tips that month – so that’s exceptional.

The ROI over the different time periods looks like this
(Note: all figures in this analysis are rounded for readability)

Overall ROI 12mth 6mth 3mth
7% 7% 10% 6%

 

Return on Capital (ROC)

Return on Capital reflects how much your betting bank would have grown following this tipster.

AKA Master’s RoC is good.

If you had bet the same fixed amount on every AKKA Master tip your betting bank could have grown by almost 5 times (600%) what it started at e.g. from a recommended 350 points to over 1,700 points.

Adjusting your bet stakes based on the available bank at the start of each month the bank growth would (theoretically) have been around 17 times what it started at.

(The phrase “theoretically” is being used here because during the final month of betting the stakes would have risen to almost 15 points per bet or £150 at £10 per point. You might not be comfortable betting at those kinds of levels but also it may be increasingly difficult to place bets of that magnitude)

Consistency

The bank growth (drak red line) does show a strong upward trend. And the variance away from that trendline (broad light red line) is acceptable.

Apart from the Feb’21 loss, the consistency of profits month-to-month is good.

COST

Value for Money

When you sign-up for a tipster you hope to make the same profit, the same ROI, as the tipster. And you’re paying a subscription fee for that. Each percentage of ROI, therefore, has a monetary £/$/€ cost. (e.g. 10% ROI costing £20 in subscription fee means each 1% of ROI costs £2). This is a useful way to compare tipsters.

AKKA Master has a monthly subscription fee of £39 and has produced an overall ROI of 7%.

Each percent of ROI, therefore, costs around £5 (£39 divided by 7). Compared to an average of £2 this does not represent good value for money in these terms.

AKKA Master is clearly not value-for-money in this respect. There are other tipsters producing similar ROI for a lower subscription cost.

But remember thats not the only assessment criteria.

Staking & Betting Bank

AKKA Master has so far advised a straightforward 10 point stake on every tip so there is no complexity here – which is good.

The size of the Betting Bank required to adequately follow a tipster is based on a combination of the average stake size and the Estimated Longest Losing Run (ELLR) which, in turn, is based on the Win Rate of the tipster’s bets.

The ELLR of AKKA Master based on 626 tips and his 38% Win Rate is around 14. That is, you should anticipate a losing run of 14 tips/bets.

The formula I normally use to calculate the size of Betting Bank is:

Betting Bank Size = 2.5 x ELLR x Average Bet Stake

The betting Bank for AKKA Master would therefore be 350 points (=2.5 x 14 x 10) which, by comparison, is fairly large.

RISK

Volatility

The less volatile a tipster’s performance is the more dependable their profits are month to month.

With high volatility, you get big profitable months and big losing months which makes the timing of when you join a tipster a bit of a gamble – are you going to join on a good month or a bad month?

There is mathematics behind calculating volatility but you can get a feel for it from the performance graph above.

The actual performance is the bank growth shown by the solid red thin line. The general trend of the bank growth is shown by the broad red line.

The closer the actual performance keeps to the trend line the less volatility there is and the more dependable the performance and profits are month to month.

AKKA Master’s volatility is reasonably low and if the performance so far continues you’d be unlucky to hit a losing month when you join.

Skill versus Chance

The statistical p-value is used to gauge if a tipster’s ROI could have been achieved simply through luck or chance rather than something else like skill or expertise.

The best p-value figures are typically less than 0.01%. Values this low provide very strong evidence against it being luck or chance.

AKKA Master’s p-value based on the number of tips to date is currently 10%. That’s a high value.

Such a high p-value indicates there is no real evidence, statistically, that the ROI being produced here is due to skill or expertise. Statistically, it is equally as likely that it could be achieved by luck or pure chance.

Given time however with more tips and continued success the p-value might perhaps fall to below 1%. But that would take another 1500 tips. And that’s going to take another 2 years at the current rate of tipping.

Estimated Longest Losing Run (ELLR)

With a 38% Win Rate on tips the current estimated longest losing run is around 14.

With an average of 1 – 2  tips per day, it would take one or two weeks before you know you’ve hit that ELLR of 14.

This suggests you could review your stake amounts on a weekly basis (rather than daily) and still react to what might prove to be that longest losing run.

An ELLR of 14 combined with 10 points per tip equates to a loss of 140 points if that ELLR was to happen – that would be £1,400 at £10 per point.

Actual Losing Runs

There have already been two actual runs of 10 losing tips. However 80% of losing runs are 3 or less.

On the winning streaks front, there have been four runs of 5 winning tips but 87% of winning runs are 2 or fewer.

Statistically, with this number of tips and the 38% Win Rate the estimated longest winning run is 6 tips –  so statistics and reality are pretty much in agreement.

Risk/Reward

The ratio of Risk to Reward is a gauge of how investable a tipster is. Ideally, you want a high reward (a high ROI) with very little risk (low ROI volatility).

AKKA Master’s current ROI Risk/Reward figure is 2.4 and indicates that this is quite a risky investment and 7% ROI is not a huge reward.

EFFORT

Time Commitment

This would be an easy service to follow with only one or two tips per day for matches that going to kick-off 24 hours or more in the future.

That gives you plenty of time to find the best odds and place your bets.

CONCLUSION

This technical analysis has covered 12 months and over 600 tips of AKKA Master’s results from Sep’20 to the end of Aug’21.

I find myself in two minds about this tipster.

On the downside the p-value is high, the ROI Risk is high and the subscription cost is high.

On the upside, however, the performance graph shows pretty solid consistency and a low volatility. The ROI might be varying a lot month-on-month but the actual monthly profits in cash terms is pretty consistent. An average profitable month has produced £128 profit and there have been 11 of those. And the one single losing month lost £110.

One thing that is not teased out in the stats is that doing doubles – or accumulators generally – typically marks you out as more of a “mug punter” with bookmakers – and bookies love taking money from mug punters.

This is a positive thing because it’s less likely you’ll have your account limited or closed if you’re seen as a “mug punter” – unless you only use one bookie and keep on winning month after month of course then any bookie is going to limit or close your account.

If you did want to subscribe and follow AKKA Master’s tips the recommendations would be:

  • set aside a 350 point betting bank
  • revise your bet stake levels on a weekly basis (or daily if you have the time) based on 3% of the available betting bank at the start of the week
  • be prepared for a run of 12 – 15 losing bets before the end of 2021
  • use 10 or more bookmakers and rotate your usage of them on a daily basis

You can find out more about AKKA Master here

 

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