AKKA MASTER : Solid profits from football doubles

Return On Investment (ROI)

AKKA Master completed a full 15 months of tipping in August’21 with only 1 losing month in Feb’21.

The average ROI is a good 10% however it varies quite a lot month on month.

The ROI in the profitable months has been very wide-ranging between 3.1% to 83.5% in Jun’21 although there were only 4 tips that month – so that’s exceptional.

The ROI over the different time periods looks like this
(Note: all figures in this analysis are rounded for readability)

Return on Capital (ROC)

Return on Capital reflects how much your betting bank would have grown following this tipster.

AKKA Master’s RoC is good.

If you had bet the same fixed amount on every AKKA Master tip your betting bank could have grown by almost 5 times (600%) what it started at e.g. from a recommended 350 points to over 1,700 points.

Adjusting your bet stakes based on the available bank at the start of each month the bank growth would (theoretically) have been around 17 times what it started at.

(The phrase “theoretically” is being used here because during the final month of betting the stakes would have risen to almost 15 points per bet or £150 at £10 per point. You might not be comfortable betting at those levels but also it may be increasingly difficult to place bets of that magnitude)

Consistency

Based on data to 5th Dec 2021

The bank growth (dark red line) does show a strong upward trend. And the variance away from that trendline (broad light red line) is acceptable.

Apart from the Feb’21 loss, the consistency of profits month-to-month is good.

Note: It’s important to note that the graph was produced on 5th Dec’21 therefore only the completed months up to and including November are considered relevant for this analysis.

Profitable Months Profile

There have been 14 profitable months from 15 – that’s a 93% probability of having a profitable month.

Sixty percent (60%) of profitable months were 50 points or less and there has been no month (yet) where the monthly profit has exceeded 150 points.

Fifty percent (50%) of profitable months have produced an ROI of 10% or less and 50% have been over 10% ROI.

One way to interpret these figures is that when you join AKKA Master theres’ a 90% chance you’ll hit a profitable month.

And most likely it will produce up to 50 points profit with an ROI of over 10%.

Putting these probabilities together there’s a 45% chance of a profitable month of over 10% ROI.

Value for Money

When you sign-up for a tipster you hope to make the same profit, the same ROI, as the tipster. And you’re paying a subscription fee for that. Each percentage of ROI, therefore, has a monetary £/$/€ cost. (e.g. 10% ROI costing £20 in subscription fee means each 1% of ROI costs £2). This is a useful way to compare tipsters.

AKKA Master has a monthly subscription fee of £39 and has produced an overall ROI of 10%.

Each percent of ROI, therefore, costs around £4 (£39 divided by 10). Compared to an average of £2 AKKA Master is clearly not value-for-money in this respect. There are other tipsters producing similar ROI for a lower subscription cost.

But remember Value-for-Money is not the only assessment criteria.

Staking & Betting Bank

AKKA Master has so far advised a straightforward 10 point stake on every tip so there is no complexity here – which is good.

The size of the Betting Bank required to adequately follow a tipster is based on a combination of the average stake size and the Estimated Longest Losing Run (ELLR) which, in turn, is based on the Win Rate of the tipster’s bets.

The ELLR of AKKA Master, based on over 800 tips and his 37% Win Rate, is around 15. That is, you should anticipate a losing run of 15 tips/bets.

The formula I normally use to calculate the size of Betting Bank is:

Betting Bank Size = 2.5 x ELLR x Average Bet Stake

The betting Bank for AKKA Master would therefore be 375 points (=2.5 x 15 x 10) which, by comparison, sounds fairly large.

But what does “375 points” mean in cash terms?

Let’s do some simple maths.

If there were 3 tips per day advised at 10 points per tip that would be 30 points bet per day.  At £1 per point that’s £10 per bet and a total of £30 per day in bets.

Over a month that’s roughly £900 in bets.

A monthly ROI of 10% would produce £90 profit on that £900 of bets. Or (probably) more if you adjusted your stakes on a daily basis based on the available betting bank.

Subtracting your £39 subscription fee from £90 profit leaves you with a £51 clear profit you can put back into your betting bank.

So you can make a small profit betting at £1 per point which makes your 375 points bank equal to £375.

Personally, though, I’d be looking for twice that profit – at least £100 clear profit per month.

I’m basing that on it would probably take me about 10 mins to place the three bets – that’s 300 minutes over the month – 5 hours of my time to make £51 profit. Thats’ making £10 per hour. That’s not much more than UK minimum wage.

That means I need to be betting at something like £2 per point i.e each bet is £20.

This would set my Betting Bank Size at £750 (£2 multiplied by 375)

Volatility

Based on data to 5th Dec 2021

The less volatile a tipster’s performance is the more dependable their profits are month to month.

With high volatility, you get big profitable months and big losing months which makes the timing of when you join a tipster a bit of a gamble – are you going to join on a good month or a bad month?

There is mathematics behind calculating volatility but you can get a feel for it from the performance graph.

The actual performance is the bank growth shown by the thin solid dark red line. The general trend of the bank growth is shown by the broad lighter-red line.

The closer the actual performance keeps to the trend line the less volatility there is and the more dependable the performance and profits are month to month.

AKKA Master’s volatility appears reasonably low – which is good – and if the performance to date continues you’d be unlucky to hit a losing month when you join.

Skill versus Chance

The statistical p-value is used to gauge if a tipster’s ROI could have been achieved simply through luck or chance rather than something else like skill or expertise.

The best p-value figures are typically less than 0.01%. Values this low provide very strong evidence against it being luck or chance.

AKKA Master’s p-value has come down over the last 2 months and, based on the number of tips to date, is currently 1.5%. This is below the 5% threshold widely considered in statistical terms to indicate strong evidence against this performance being due to luck or chance.

Estimated Longest Losing Run (ELLR)

With a 37% Win Rate on tips, the current estimated longest losing run is around 15.

With an average of 2 – 3  tips per day, it would take one or two weeks before you know you’ve hit that longest losing run.

This suggests you could review your stake amounts on a daily basis (rather than weekly) to be able to react to what might prove to be that longest losing run.

An ELLR of 15 combined with 10 points per tip equates to a loss of 150 points if that ELLR was to happen – that would be £300 at £2 per point.

Actual Losing Runs

In the initial analysis of AKKA Master in Sep’21 I stated in the recommendations to “be prepared for a run of 15 – 16 losing bets before the end of 2021” and hey-presto didn’t it happen the very next month in October.

So there has already been one actual losing run of 15 tips during October’21 which ties in nicely with the statistical prediction. And there have been 9 actual losing runs of 10 or tips.

However, 80% of losing runs are 3 or less. And 90% of losing runs are 5 or less.

On the winning streaks front, there have been four runs of 5 winning tips but almost 90% of winning runs are 2 or fewer.

Statistically, with this number of tips and the 37% Win Rate the estimated longest winning run is 7 tips. Perhaps that will happen soon.

Risk/Reward

The ratio of Risk to Reward is a gauge of how investable a tipster is. Ideally, you want a high reward (a high ROI) with very little risk (low ROI volatility).

AKKA Master’s current ROI Risk/Reward figure is 2.2 and indicates that this is quite a risky investment but 10% is a reasonable reward.

Time Commitment

This would be an easy service to follow with only two to three tips per day for matches that going to kick-off 24 hours or more in the future.

That gives you plenty of time to find the best odds and place your bets.

A very investable proposition.

This technical analysis has covered 15 months and over 800 tips of AKKA Master’s results from Sep’20 to the end of Nov21.

Two months ago, In Sep’21, after the first analysis, I found myself in two minds about this tipster. Now I’m not.

The p-value has come down significantly over the past two months and also the ROI  has improved from 9% to 10.5%.

The performance graph has sustained a solid consistency and low volatility. And while the ROI might be varying a lot month-on-month the actual monthly profits in cash terms are good. An average profitable month has produced 56 points profit and there have been 14 of those. And the one single losing month lost 44 points.

One thing that is not teased out in the stats is that doing doubles – or accumulators generally – typically marks you out as more of a “mug punter” with bookmakers – and bookies love taking money from mug punters.

This is a positive thing because it’s less likely you’ll have your account limited or closed if you’re seen as a “mug punter” – unless you only use only one bookie and keep on winning month after month of course then any bookie is going to limit or close your account.

If you want to subscribe and follow AKKA Master’s tips the recommendations would be:

• set aside a 350 point betting bank
• revise your bet stake levels on a daily basis based on 3% of the available betting bank
• be prepared for a run of 16 – 17 losing bets over the next 6 months
• use 10 or more bookmakers and rotate your usage of them on a daily basis

You can find out more about AKKA Master here