365 TIPS : Doubled his ROI by changing tack – a COVID success story

Return On Investment

The ROI of the 365 Tips service over the most recent 6 months under analysis has been a very good 24%.

The most recent 3-month ROI has been an even better 32% ROI.

Return on Capital

The recommended Betting Bank for 365 Tips is calculated at 1200 points. This is based on the 28% Win Rate and factors in the full stake of these each-way tips.

Following this tipster, with that recommended Betting Bank, the Return On Capital (ROC) figure is a healthy 800% plus.

In other words, your original bank of 1,200 units would have grown to over 8,500 units.

Betting Bank Growth in Money Terms

Over 6 months a betting bank of £1,000 would have grown to over £12,000.

Starting with a betting bank of £1,000 and setting stakes for the month at 2% of the available betting bank at the start of the month you would have started with £20 bets (£10 each-way).

Six months later for Nov’20, your stakes would theoretically have been £120 bets (£60 each-way) and your bank would have grown from £1,000 to over £12,000.

Consistency

There have been 6 profitable months out for the 6 months included in this analysis.

While this is good do not be fooled into thinking this is sustainable – bad times will come – 365 Tips will hit losing months  – it’s inevitable.

Six months results only really gives an indication of how things might pan out.

The next 6 months for 365 Tips will be important.

Value for Money

When you sign-up for a tipster you hope to make the same profit, the same ROI, as the tipster and you’re paying a subscription fee for that.

Each percentage of ROI therefore has a £/$/€ cost. (e.g. 10% ROI costing £20 means each 1% of ROI costs £2)

This is a useful way to compare tipsters when shopping around for value-for-money – how much each 1% of ROI is costing you.

365 Tips’ 24% ROI costs £19 per month in subscription cost. Each 1% of ROI therefore costs under £1. This is very good value compared to the £2.20 average.

Staking

In the last 6 months all 365 Tips tips have been advised at 10 points each-way – a 20 point stake.

If you were betting at £1 per point this would be £20 per bet at the beginning and you should, of course, increase/decrease your stakes on a monthly basis based on the size of your betting bank.

Betting Bank

The betting bank size for 365 Tips would be around 1200 points.

The size of the Betting Bank required to adequately follow a tipster is based on a combination of the average stake size and the Estimated Longest Losing Run (ELLR) which, in turn, is based on the Win Rate of the tipster’s bets.

This 1200 points is based on having enough to suffer a worst-case scenario of two of longest losing runs in a row and still have some left to continue betting.

The formula I use to calculate the size of Betting Bank is:  Betting Bank Size = 2.5  x  ELLR  x  Average Bet Stake

365 Tips has published roughly 1500 tips in the most recent 6 months with an average of 250 tips per month.

So we might expect a further 1500 tips over the next 6 months taking the total tips to 3,000.

The ELLR for 3000 tips at 28% Win Rate is 24. You should therefore anticipate having a run of 24 losing bets in a row sometime during the next 6 months.

With 20 point bet stakes (10 points each-way) the start-up Betting Bank Size would be somewhere in the region of 1200 points (2.5*24*20) – assuming average risk.

The actual longest losing run of tips in the 6 months to Nov’20 has been 14.

There have been 8 losing runs of 10 or more and 620 runs of 2 or more.

On winning runs, there have been 4 winning runs of 5 or more but 464 runs of 2 or less.

Volatility

The less volatile a tipster’s performance is the more dependable their profits are month to month.

With high volatility, you get big profitable months and big losing months which makes the timing of when you join a tipster a bit of a gamble  – are you going to hit a good month or a bad month?

It is a little too early to assess the volatility of 365 Tips with any real confidence. SIx profitable months from six looks great and the Coefficient of Variance of the ROI is a relatively low 0.59. But, personally, it will take at least another 3 months of results to have full confidence in this particular indicator.

Skill versus Chance

The statistical p-value is used to gauge if a tipster’s ROI could have been achieved simply through luck or chance rather than something else like skill or expertise.

The best p-value figures are typically less than 0.01% indicating very strong evidence against luck or chance.

365 Tips’ p-value for the 6 months under analysis is currently 0.05%, which confirms there is strong evidence that ist unlikely the ROI being produced by this tipster is due to chance.

Estimated Longest Losing Run

The bet Win Rate of 28% indicates an ELLR of around 23 based on the 1,500 tips published in the last 6 months. This rises to maybe 24 or 25 over the next 1,500 tips/bets. In other words, you should expect and plan for 24 (or more) losing bets in a row.

365 Tips’ tips are consistently advised at 10 points each-way (20 point stakes). This means a losing streak of 24 bets could equate to losing 480 points or units or £480 at £1/point.

If you started with a Betting Bank of 1,200 units and you hit a worst-case scenario of two longest runs one after the other separated by only one winner (extremely unlikely but still possible) you would still be left with about 240 units to start over (1,200 minus  2 x 480).

In reality, though provided you keep regularly adjusting the £ value of your points based on your current bank of points then the actual real-money impact will be substantially less.

Risk/Reward

The ratio of Risk to Reward is a gauge of how investable a tipster is. Ideally, you want high reward (a high ROI) with very little risk (low volatility).

365 Tips’s current Risk/Reward figure is very good. The current figure of 0.59 indicates there is more reward on offer here than there is risk.

Time Commitment

There is an average of 9 tips per day and most (75%) of these are published in the morning of the races 6 hours or more in advance of the event.

It should be enough to place the 9 bets but you will need to be alert to the tip notifications over a few hours in the mornings.

Bookmakers Used

The top bookmakers used for these tips have all been “soft” bookmakers – Bet365, 888, William Hill, Skybet etc.

This presents the difficulty of your account being severely limited or closed if you win too much.

Another thing with 365 Tips is he often tips more than one runner in a race. Betting on multiple runners in the same race with the same bookie could raise their suspicions.

To help address these two problems you might create a bank of 10 or more bookmakers and rotate your use of them. You should also investigate using a betting exchange to see if you can get the odds and the liquidity at the time the tips are published.

Impact Of Long Losing Runs

Looking at the ELLR more broadly I would recommend keeping a tight control on your stake levels and suggest reviewing your £-per-point staking figure on a daily basis rather than weekly or monthly.

There were 172 days of tips over the 6-month period from Jun’20 to Nov’20. 94 were profitable days, 78 were losing days.

An average losing day was -9 points and an average profitable day was +14 points.

In other words, more and bigger winnings days than losing days.

Two-thirds of the days (67%) had 10 tips or less and while the average was 9 per day it has ranged between 1 and 27.

At 9 tips per day and the ELLR moving towards 24 in the next 6 months, you might expect it would only take three days before you know if you’ve hit that longest losing run.

But the longest actual losing run of days in these 6-months has been 5.

Actual Runs of Losing Days

Of the 78 losing days, 83% were losing runs of 2 days or less which is reassuring.

The longest run of losing days was 5 in a row from 19th to 23rd Jul’20 which lost a total of -37 points.

Actual Runs of Profitable Days

Of the 94 profitable days, 85% were 3 days or less.

Statistically, the longest winning run for a Win Rate of 28% is about 6 but 365 Tips’ actual longest winning run was 9 days in a row from the 3rd to 11th of Oct’20 which netted a total of 90 points profit.

This technical analysis has included only the six months of 365 Tips’ results from Jun’20 to Nov’20 because the tipping approach switched from tipping winners to tipping each-way in Jun’20.

This switch made the first 6-months of results much less relevant for anyone looking to sign-up for the 365 Tips service right now.

The performance of 365 Tips over these 6 months of tipping has been very good suggesting 365 Tips is a service worth following.

The recommendations would be:

• set aside a 1200 point betting bank
• be prepared for a run of 24 losing bets
• use 2% of bank per point staking
• adjust the £/point staking on a daily basis
• use 10 or more bookmakers and rotate through them
• test profitability using Betfair

Analysis of 365 Tips’ stats suggests this is a low-risk high-return service –  the ideal combination – and makes 365 Tips a very investable proposition.

Another 3 months of results for the new each-way tipping approach will confirm the potential of this service.

Find out more about 365 Tips here