SUPER SPORTS CAPPER : 10% ROI from American sports

A Mixed Sports tipster since September 2020, Super-Sports-Capper has delivered a very good 10% ROI with 14 profitable months from 18 total months tipping – that’s 78% chance of having a profitable month.

On average there’s 3 tips per day typically advised at 2 pt. which means, at £1 per point, you’d be betting around £6 per day.

Super-Sports-Capper

ROI:
10%
PM:
14 / 18
Skill:
VERY HIGH
ELLR:
9
Risk:
MEDIUM
VfM:
POOR
Stks:
REASONABLE

Skill Factor: VERY HIGH

The statistical p-value provides an indication of how likely a tipster’s results could be achieved purely by chance – have they just been lucky?

Super-Sports-Capper’s p-value is 0.0000 (to 4 decimal places) – in other words there’s a 0.0030% probability these results are due to luck.

This suggests its extremely unlikely these results could be achieved by pure chance..

Losing Streaks: VERY SHORT

Over 18 months there have been 1335 tips. The Win Rate of these tips has been 59%. This gives a low ELLR (Estimated Longest Losing Run) figure of 9. In other words you should have been prepared for 9 losing tips in a row over that number of tips.

With the current ROI and number of tips per day you should prepare for encountering the following:

  • Over the next month: At least one run of 5 losing tips.
  • Over the next 3 months: At least one run of 6 losing tips.
  • Over the next 6 months: At least one run of 7 losing tips.

Risk: MEDIUM

The finance industry uses a coefficient of variation calculation to measure how risky an investment is. In simple terms its the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean.

But in even simpler terms its looking at the monthly ROI figures – are they always about the same or do they vary a lot?

If they vary a lot that means performance is volatile and volatility means risk.The coefficent of variation puts a specific number to this risk so that you can compare investments for risk but you can get a sense of how risky/volatile a tipster is just by looking at how much the ROI changes month-on-month.

Super-Sports-Capper’s coefficient of variation figure is 1.91 indicating performance is reasonably stable – risk is acceptable.

Value for Money: POOR

Super-Sports-Capper’s overall ROI is 10%. The monthly subscription cost to get these tips is £37. This means that each 1% of ROI costs £3.57 which is above the average £2.50 per 1% ROI.

Remember, you can save some money by taking a 3-month or even 6-month subscription. The costs per month will be less and you can always cancel and get a refund should you wish.

Staking Levels: REASONABLE

Knowing the ROI and the number of tips per day and the advised stake points you can work out how much you need to bet to cover the monthly subscription cost. Betting more than that per point would then give you a clear profit.

The trouble is that you don’t know what ROI is going to be. It might even be negative – a losing month.

But doing the calculation can provide an indication of the scale of betting levels – will it be something like £10 a day or more like £100 a day.

£2.10 per point to cover subscription cost
Based on the 10% ROI from 3 tips a day at the average advised stakes of 2.5 points you’d need to be betting at £2.10 per point to cover the £37 monthly subscription cost.

£7.60 per point to clear £100 profit
To hope to make around £100 clear profit a month the staking levels would need to be in the region of £7.60 per point. At this level you’d be betting about £45 a day.

Betting Bank: 44pts

The size of Betting Bank required to adequately follow a tipster is based on a combination of the average stake size and the ELLR.

The formula used here to calculate the size of Betting Bank is: Betting Bank Size = 2.5 x ELLR x Average Bet Stake

This will enough to withstand a worst-case scenario of two (2) longest losing runs in quick sucession and still have something left (0.5) to continue betting.

The betting bank size for Super-Sports-Capper would be around 44 points.

So, if you were betting at £7.60/pt stakes aiming to make £100 clear profit the Betting Bank would need to be around £350.

Expectancy

1 MONTH: If you’d followed Super-Sports-Capper for 1 month at any time since the service started there was a 82% chance you’d make a profit. Looking at it another way you were 5 times more likely to have made money than lost money in any one month and your profit would have been 2 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 230 points profit versus an average loss of -137 points.

2 MONTH: Following for 2 months at any time since the service started there was a 88% chance you’d make a profit. You were 7 times more likely to have made money than lost money in any two months and your profit would have been 1 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 419 points profit versus an average loss of -286 points.

3 MONTH: If you’d followed for 3 months at any time since the service started there was a 87% chance you’d make a profit. You were 7 times more likely to have made money than lost money in any 3 months and your profit would have been 4 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 635 points profit versus an average loss of -148 points.

Consecutive Periods Total Periods Made Profit Made Loss %Profitable Avg.Period Profit Avg.Period Loss Expectancy Profit Factor
any 1 month 17 14 3 82% 230 -137 165 1
any 2 months 16 14 2 88% 419 -286 330 1
any 3 months 15 13 2 87% 635 -148 530 4
any 4 months 14 12 2 86% 843 -91 709 9
any 5 months 13 12 1 92% 950 -87 870 10
any 6 months 12 12 0 100% 1039 0 1039 1039

Find out more about Super-Sports-Capper here

 

 

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Rob

Rob

I'm Rob, I have an M.Sc. In Mathematics and Computer Science and I am the creator & writer of TheBetInvestor. I provide honest independent assessments of sports tipsters based on statistical and financial investment analysis. My aim is to find profitable tipsters and help you safely navigate the murky waters of the online sports tips world.

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