Ultimate Football Tips – Bettinggods tipster review

This is a review of Ultimate Football Tips, a football tipster service from Bettinggods. It analyses how well this service has performed and uncovers some interesting facts behind the headline figures

What is Ultimate Football Tips?

Ultimate Football Tips is one of a small number of Bettinggods football tipster services.
(See also the review of Chloe’s Football Focus)

To become a tipster with Bettinggods you must first proof your tips with them for a period of typically 4 months. This proves firstly that your tips are producing a profit over the medium term and secondly that it looks like you’ve got the commitment to continue doing it in the longer term.

At the end of the 4-month proofing period, if you’re successful, your tipster service will be opened to the public for subscriptions and promoted by the Bettinggods team.

The Ultimate Football Tips service started proofing their tips on 6 May 2018. At the time of this review that gives us about 6 months of performance data to access.

Pro Footy Tips Headline Stats (21 Oct 2018)

Here are the key performance indicators for Pro Footy Tips from the Bettinggods site. The full set of selections and results can be found here

How has Ultimate Football Tips performed?

One of the issues I have with Bettinggods is how they promote new tipsters saying they launched at the start of the proofing period. It is only after the proofing period of 4 months that the tipster appears on the Bettinggods website and becomes available to the public for subscription. For Ultimate Football Tips this was around the end of August beginning of September.

During the proofing period from May 2018 to August 2018, there were 3 out of 4 profitable months taking the betting bank from 0 to around £700 (using £10/point stakes).

The first subscribers after the service was opened for subscriptions in Sep’18 saw a profit of around £50 using £10/point stakes, But at least that covered the £25 monthly subscription cost and left £25 to buy the next months subscription.

October so far (to 20th) has been a much better month returning a healthy £310 profit (again to £10/point stakes).

One losing month out of 6 since starting as a tipster is very good. There’ll always be ups and downs but this service looks to have started well.

The tips are predominantly singles and combo-bets e.g. Home Win & BTTS, but you do get some multiples doubles, trebles and even four-fold bets added in. There have been 31 of these multiples to date and they have been very successful – 37 points profit on 45.5 points stakes. That’s a mighty 82.9% ROI.

The singles too have returned a none-too-shabby 15.7% ROI.

Strike Rates and Losing Runs

Ultimate Football Tips has only had 248 tips so far. I say “only” because in the grand scheme of things that’s really not too many.

Statistically though, with a 40% Strike Rate the likely longest losing run during 248 bets is estimated to be about 10 or 11 and the longest winning run to be 6. Actual figures from their spreadsheet show longest losing run has been 14 and the longest winning run has been 11. Both actual figures are greater than statistically expected.

The greater actual losing sequence may be due to the use of combo bets during the period such as BTTS&home-team-win or BBTS&Over2.5 goals. The combo bets may have lost even though one single part of the bet actually won.

For example, there were two tips during the 14 losing sequence that were combo bets. Both bets were on the same match between Hebei and Shanghai SIPG. Bet 1 was  Hebei to win & BTTS. Bet 2 was BTTS and Over2.5. The match ended as a 1-1 draw. So the BTTS part of each bet won, however, Hebie didn’t win and it wasn’t over 2.5 goals. The outcome, therefore, was two losing bets.

The greater winning sequence may be due to there being multiple-type bets during the sequence e.g. doubles, trebles etc.

In fact, during the run of 11 winning bets, there were 8 winning singles and in addition, there were 3 doubles as extra tips and each of these naturally won.

Taking a slightly different view, and looking at their sequences of winning days and losing days. The longest sequence of losing days is 9 and the longest sequence of winning days is 4.

So statistically what could we say the next 6 months hold in store for Ultimate Football Tips?

If the next 6 months brings another 248 bets and the 40% Strike Rate is maintained and the average stake per bet stays at 2 points, then I would estimate the statistical likely longest losing run will be 16. To cover that eventuality you probably need a betting bank of 64 points and so I would agree with the 75 points recommended by Bettinggods as a nicely rounded up figure.

Lucky Tipster?

Another interesting statistical indicator is the t-score – how likely is the tipster’s success is just pure chance. You can read lots about it on the internet. Some of it is actually understandable.

The t-score number can be converted to a probability value so you can see how likley the yield/ROI is NOT the result of chance.

Ultimate Football Tips has a current t-score of 1.94 – that’s a 2.64% probability –  indicating there is good evidence the yield/ROI is NOT the result of chance.

Note: 0.1% and under indicates strong evidence the yield/ROI is NOT the result of chance.

In Summary

With 5 winning months from 6 and with good evidence the yield/ROI is NOT the result of chance Ultimate Football Tips is at least worthy of watching.

If you’d like to find out more about Ultimate Football Tips you can find him on Bettinggods.

 

Rob

Rob

I'm Rob, I have an M.Sc. In Mathematics and Computer Science and I am the creator & writer of TheBetInvestor. I provide honest independent assessments of sports tipsters based on statistical and financial investment analysis. My aim is to find profitable tipsters and help you safely navigate the murky waters of the online sports tips world.

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