TipstrrPRO Tipsters an in-depth scientific assessment

About Tipstrr

The goal of Tipstrr is simple – to help people profit from sports betting.

They provide an open and transparent platform to connect expert tipsters with sports bettors looking to improve their long term profitability.

In this post, I analyse the performance of tipsters who have made it onto their TipstrrPRO “top tipsters” list.

 

BillgkrTips multi-sport tipster

Assessment date: Jul 2019

ROI: BillgkrTips all-time ROI over 30 months is 11.8%, however, over the past 12 months to Jul’19 his ROI has been 5%. The last 6-month ROI is 5.8% and over the last 3-months, this has dipped to 2.63%.

ELLR: With a Win Rate of around 50% this gives an Estimated Longest Losing Run of 10. There is an average of 11 tips published per week by BillgkrTips so you should be prepared for the possibility of going a whole week without a winner.

P-VALUE: The 0.47% p-value figure suggests there is very good evidence that this tipster has produced the level of ROI through skill and expertise rather than just luck.

REWARD/RISK: A Reward/Risk figure of 0.68 places BillgkrTips in the medium band – not up with the best but also not down with the worst in this group.

VfM: A monthly subscription to this service costs a very modest £19. Based on the all-time ROI figure of 11.8% each percentage point of ROI would, therefore, cost a low £1.61. But considering the current 5% ROI over the last 12-month period this VfM figure jumps to £3.80 – one of the highest in the TipstrrPRO group.

Assessment: do not follow

Billgkr made it onto the TipstrrPRO list on July 2019 with a tipping record stretching back to January 2017. That’s 30 completed months of service, and 21 of those have been profitable. He specialises in basketball from all over the globe but also provides tips for football and tennis.

In its heyday in the 12-months from Sep’17 to Aug’18, the BillgkrTips service made 372 points profit. That’s an average of 31 points profit per month. Since then, however, things appear to have gone south.

Average profit over the past 12 months has been 7.7 points/month with 5 losing months from those 12. The last 6-months, Feb to Jul’19 saw this rise to 8.8 points profit per month. And in the most recent 3 months, May-Jul’19,  it has dropped to just over 4 points profit per month.

Overall, the ROI is low, the value-for-money figure is poor and there has been a decline in the performance of this service in more recent months. There is better value to be had elsewhere so I’m rating BillgkrTips as a do-not-follow.

 

SPORTS INSIDER football tipster

Assessment date: Jun 2019

ROI: May saw Sports Insider’s ROI figure dip to single figures. That has now been recovered in June to the typical mid-teens figure. The ROI figure of over 18% is third best in the TipstrrPRO group and is exceptional for a football tipster.

ELLR: An average Strike Rate of over 60% gives Sports Insider an Estimated Longest Losing Run of 8. With an average of 3 tips per day, you’re possibly going to experience a losing run of 3 days before getting back to winning ways.

P-VALUE: You still have to go to seven decimal places to get anything but zero for the p-value. This is a remarkable figure considering that a p-score below 0.1% indicates very strong evidence that the ROI being produced is due to skill or expertise rather than by chance.

REWARD/RISK: The reward/risk ratio of Sports Insider is currently the best in the TisptrrPRO group and has been consistently good.

VfM: Value for money is the only assessment factor that might have stopped Sports Insider getting the thumbs-up all round. He is the third most expensive tipster per percent of ROI. But considering just how good this service is it’s worth the money.

Assessment: worth following

Taking all the assessment factors into consideration Sports Insider comes out as the number one tipster in the TIpstrrPRO group.

With only one losing month out of 11, and that was a relatively small loss in December’18, this has been a model of consistency.

With a Return On Investment figure that many horse racing tipsters would envy this is most definitely THE TipstrrPRO tipster to follow at this time.

 

BETTER BETTOR football tipster

Assessment date: Jun 2019

ROI: The cumulative ROI has fallen to its lowest value in eleven months. However, with double digits, it is still very good and in the higher bands for football tipsters.

ELLR: The Estimated Longest Losing Run figure had been typically 8 or 9 over the majority of months so its descent to 13 for the month in May was a concern. That situation has been recovered in June and the ELLR now sits at a very acceptable 9.

P-VALUE: The p-value right now is borderline at 0.10%. This figure still indicates very strong evidence that the ROI being produced is due to skill however I’d still like to see This is a measure of whether the success of these tips is more likely due to skill or luck and is preferably below this value.

REWARD/RISK: The Reward/Risk figure took quite a hit during May which was this tipsters first losing month in ten. Even at 1.30 this figure is still above the 1.00 threshold to consider this tipster worth following.

VfM: Finally, the Value for Money (VfM) figure which is the subscription cost per one percent of ROI is still very good compared with the TipstrrPRO group. The monthly subscription cost of only £19 is one of the smallest and hasn’t changed since the service started.

Assessment: worth following

It is normal for tipsters fortunes to fluctuate. Currently, Better Bettor appears to be having a comparatively poor time. In absolute terms though, all the parameters are good to very good which continues to make this tipster one to follow.

 

HODL horse racing tipster

Assessment date: Jun 2019

ROI: June saw yet another losing month for HODL. That’s 3 losing months in a row. This has seen his ROI spiral from a heady 37% in Jan’19 down to the current 17%. While at face value a 17% ROI is still good for horse racing tipsters its quite low.

ELLR: Not the worst figure in the TipstrrPRO group but you should still anticipate having a losing run of 24 losing bets. At an average 5 tips per day that could mean something like 5 losing days in a row.

P-VALUE: HODL’s current p-value is slightly above borderline at 0.16% which is probably acceptable. If this tipster does indeed have expertise and skill I would expect to see a  return to winning ways and to see this figure improve.

REWARD/RISK: A Reward/Risk figure of 0.66 places him mid-table in this group.

VfM: A monthly subscription to HODL costs £39. Back in January this year when ROI was 37% this would have made this one of the best value for money tipster services. Now its one of the poorer ones.

Assessment: wait & see

The wheels seem to have come off this tipster service.

Profits over the first 6 months of this service were incredible. Hundreds of points profits every month. Now four out of the last 6 months Jan to Jun’19 have been losing months. This has seen a loss of over 600 points (20%) of the profits built up in the earlier months.

All HODL’s assessment factors have been hit negatively. Every factor is now only “average”.

Consequently, I reckon its best to wait and see if this tipster can return to his winning ways.

 

THUNDERSTRIKE horse racing tipster

Assessment date: Jun 2019

ROI: An ROI of over 17% is on the low side for a racing tipster and has been steadily declining from 27% since the beginning of the year.

ELLR: An Estimated Longest Losing Run of 17 combined with an average of 2 tips a day means you could expect to go a full week or more without a winner.

P-VALUE: At 1.18% Thunderstrike’s p-value suggests there is good evidence that this tipster has skill and expertise rather than his results being just luck.

REWARD/RISK: The Reward/Risk indicator is third best in the TipstrrPRO group.

VfM: Each percentage point of ROI costs £2.25 putting Thunderstrike mid-table in the Value for Money stakes.

Assessment: Do not follow

Four of the last 6 months have been losers and looking at Thunderstrikes ROI over the past 12, 6 and 3 months it shows a steady decline. The previous 12-month ROI was 10%, previous 8-month ROI was basically zero and over the last 3 months, it has moved into the negative with an ROI of -6%.

The trend of worsening performance over the past year and all the indicators being “average” I’m leaving this one out of my portfolio.

 

ON THE NOSE horse racing tipster

Assessment date: Jun 2019

ROI: Now this is the kind of ROI that you dream of. Over 30% Return On Investment on the face of it would mean great profits in the long term. But its that “long-term” phrase that that’s where the problem

ELLR: On The Nose has an Estimated Longest Losing Run figure equal worst in this group. You should plan for a losing run of 37 bets. WIth an average of 1 tip per day and stakes of 4 points per bet you might be looking at a whole month of losers and being something like 120 points out of pocket.

P-VALUE: The p-value is below 1% but that’s really nothing to shout about. At best it shows only moderate evidence that this tipster has skill. Chance and luck may be just as likely.

REWARD/RISK: The Reward/Risk figure is reasonable but needs to be balanced with that poor ELLR figure.

VfM: It costs £29 for a monthly subscription to On The Nose and producing 30% ROI that make each percent of ROI cost under £1. This would be excellent if this tipster was consistently producing ROIs like this every month. But sadly he’s not. So although the VfM indicator is mathematically green it must be thought of as somewhere between amber and red.

Assessment: Do not follow

It’s a bit of a mixed bag with the assessment criteria. Good ROI and the best Value for Money of all TipstrrPRO tipsters – although this VfM figure is misleading. But its that possibility of 37 losing bets in a row that deters me. I would need deep pockets and a big betting bank to follow this tipster.

Most of this tipster’s profits have been made at the start of his service. Over the last six months, the profit graph is pretty flat. You would have made practically zero profit had you joined this service at any time during this year.

For those reasons, this is not a tipster I would follow.

 

EACH WAY VALUE TIPS horse racing tipster

Assessment date: Jun 2019

ROI: The second best ROI at over 28% over the full 22 months of operation. This is a misleading factor as 75% of this tipsters profit was made in the first 4 months of operation. In the previous 12 months the ROI has been 24%. Over the last 6 months period, it was 15% and for the most recent 3 months, the ROI has been practically zero.

ELLR: Each Way Value Tips odds are fairly high – an average of around 6/1 (7.00). Strike Rate is the lowest in this group at 17%  or 5 losers out of 6. You should plan to handle a losing run of 36 losing bets and at 33 tips a month you could be looking at a whole month of losing bets. With the average advised stakes of 4.55 points even at £1 per point stakes you could be looking at losing £150 in a month. At £5 per point stakes that could be in the region of £750 loses.

P-VALUE: Oddly the very low p-value of 0.00003 suggests this tipster is showing strong evidence of skill or expertise. Yet the very low Strike Rate would suggest otherwise. At the moment my only explanation for this is it must be related to the fact that while his ROI to advised stakes is 28% the ROI to level-stakes is an incredible 52% – almost twice as much. This suggests there is something radically wrong with his assessment of value in his tips and he would be much better simply applying level stakes.  Over the last 12 months his 414 points of profit using his advised stakes would turn into 759 points profit.

REWARD/RISK: Each Way Value Tips is currently sitting mid-table regarding Reward/Risk

VfM: If you accept the ROI figure of 28% this translates the £29 per month subscription fee into a cost per percent of ROI of £1.01 – the second lowest in the TipstrrPRO group.

Assessment: Further investigation required

Each Way Value Tips has been publishing tips for almost two years. Twenty-two months to be exact. The Tipstrr monthly breakdown graph only shows the previous 12 months and this looks like reasonable bank growth but it is misleading. You need to look at the detail in the historical monthly breakdown table to see that in the first four months of operation this service produced over 1,912 points of profit out of a total 2514 points. In other words, this service made over 75% of its total profit in the first four months way back in Sep’17 to Dec’17. This skews the headline figures dramatically. Based on the previous 6 months performance if you joined today you’d maybe make 20 points profit per month and not the 478 points per month profit of those heady first months.

But it is the anomaly of almost twice the ROI using level stakes which intrigues me. Over the past 12 months using level stakes, the ROI works out at an incredible 43%.

I must do more investigation into this before making any decision on including it in my portfolio.

 

TOP RATED JUMPS horse racing tipster

Assessment date: Jun 2019

ROI: This is just into double digits at 10.8% however it has been declining since its high of 24.26% in Sep’18.

ELLR: Strike rate is low which produces an Estimated Longest Losing Run of 28. Twenty-eight losing bets in a row is quite high and with an average of 2 tips per day that could mean two weeks before finding a winning tip.

P-VALUE: At over 2% this p-value, the second worst of this group, does not suggest skill or expertise.

REWARD/RISK: The reward/risk ratio is low and is only a quarter of the top-rated tipsters in this group.

VfM: This is a low monthly subscription cost at £19 however getting only 10.81% ROI puts the cost per percent of ROI at £1.76 – this is below the average.

Assessment

A double-digit ROI gives this tipster a green light however with the numbers gradually going south over the past year I can foresee this dipping below 10% quite soon.

Low Strike Rates and losing runs of this length are big negatives for me and don’t fit with my style of betting.

Value for Money aside, the low reward/risk ratio is the final nail in the coffin for me and I’ll not be including Top Rated Jumps in my portfolio.

 

EACH WAY RACING ALGORITHM horse racing tipster

Assessment date: Jun 2019

ROI: ROI has been maintained positive over 12-, 6- and 3-months periods and currently sits at just over 11%.

ELLR: A fairly high ELLR of 23 which at 2 tips per day on average means you should expect at some stage to go 10 or 11 days without a winning bet.

P-VALUE: The p-value is a borderline 0.10% but still suggests there is more skill and judgement in these tips rather than luck or chance.

REWARD/RISK: This tipsters reward/risk ratio is the second worst in the group.

VfM: A high monthly subscription cost of £49 for this service means a very high cost of over £4 per percent of ROI.

Assessment: Do not follow

Although the ROI is generally being maintained its the combination of low a Reward/Risk ratio and the very poor Value for Money indicator that seals this tipsters fate – it will not be included in my portfolio.

 

MR BWINO PREMIUM football tipster

Assessment date: Jun 2019

ROI: Just about getting the green light with an all-time ROI a shade over 10%. However, looking at the previous 12, 6 and 3 month periods the ROI actually shows an upward trend. Over the last 12 months, the ROI has been 11.2%. Over 6 months it rises to almost 13% and in over the last 3 months the ROI has been an impressive 19.5%

ELLR: A low Estimated Longest Losing Run of 9 is in the top three for this group. So you won’t have to wait long to get out of a losing streak and back to winning ways.

P-VALUE: The third highest p-value in this list of tipsters the 2.48% suggests there may be some luck in these tips.

REWARD/RISK: The reward/risk ratio of 0.39 is at the bottom end of the scale here which ranges up to 1.92 – five times better than MrBwino.

VfM: One of the lower cost tipsters here each percent of ROI costs you £1.81.

Assessment

This tipster has been operating on the Tipstrr platform since Sep 2016 – that’s well over two years. That shows a strong commitment to his tipping service.

The average number of tips per month is relatively low – one every other day. And his staking level is predominantly 5 points. This suggests the running costs of following this tipster are reasonably low. However, profits could also be low unless you adopt £5+ per point betting.

I like the low ELLR but the poor reward/risk ratio keeps this tipster out of my portfolio for now.

 

DANCING BRAVE horse racing tipster

Assessment date: Jun 2019

ROI: The lowest ROI of the lot at 3.34% it’s difficult to understand why this tipster appears on the TipstrrPRO lineup at all.

ELLR: Joint highest figure for Estimated Longest Losing Runs. A likely losing streak of 37 losers.

P-VALUE: An astronomic p-value of 25% is a big indicator that the small ROI this tipster is producing is simply due to luck.

REWARD/RISK: The lowest reward/risk ratio indicates by following these tips you are putting your money at very high risk for very little reward.

VfM: WIth such a low ROI it’s not surprising this is the worst Value for Money tipster here at a cost of over £6 for each percentage point of ROI.

Assessment

This tipster simply fails on all counts.

An ROI of under 5% over the past 12 months, -8% over 6 months and -16% over the past 3 months. It looks like this tipster is on a road to nowhere. You can get your first 14 days for free but quite honestly I don’t know why you’d bother.

 

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