Chloe’s Football Focus Revisited

I did my original review of Chloe’s Football Focus back in February 2018.

It exposed “hidden facts” that threw doubt on the veracity of headline figure of £756 average profit a month.

Since then Bettinggods have made some adjustments to the information regarding Chloe’s Football Focus service. I thought it best to revisit the original review and provide an update based on the latest information about this tipster.

Most notable of the changes Bettinggods has made is that they now state that Chloe’s Football Focus service started in November 2017 and not June 2017.

GOOD ADJUSTMENT
It is good that Bettinggods have now excluded the proofing period during which no-one would have received the tips and therefore no-one could have made the profits alluded to in the £756/month headline.

DUBIOUS ADJUSTMENT
Its puzzling to note however that it also EXCLUDES the losing month of October when the service was in actual fact originally launched. Unfortunately, that slice of history seems to now have been erased.

So how has Chloes’ Football Focus been performing since the “relaunch” at the start of November 2017?

The revised Full Stats figures now present a much more realistic view of what to expect for this tipster service.  The average monthly profit is now just over £71 per month which translates into an ROI of 7.5%. That’s a factor of 10 times less than the original claims.

The bank growth graph has a bit of a roller-coaster look to it but in general, it shows a positive longer-term upward trend.

However, taking a more detailed look at this performance highlights a number of things.

You would have lost money had you taken just a single month’s subscription in November’17 and in February, May, July and August of 2018.

The worst possible time to have joined would have been at the start of Feb’18 when it would have taken 5 months to see any profit at all. When profit did come at the end of June’18 you would have been £134 better of (to £10/point stakes). But that would have just about covered the 5 monthly subscriptions cost of £125 or almost paid for the £150 annual cost. Either way, you’d have practically only broken even by the end of June.

You would have been even more sadly disappointed if, at that point, you though your fortunes had changed because July and August were both losing months.

Best times to have joined for one month were Jan’18 when you would have made about £500 profit and June’18 for roughly £400 profit.

September and October this year have been profitable. £150 and £100 respectively. And the start of November has continued that trend.

If you joined at the start of September you’d be over £300 up. Long may that continue.

Sadly, you can never choose the right time to join a tipster’s service.

Betting Odds and Stakes

The odds of Chloe’s tips are wide ranging from 1.28 to 34 with the average odds being around 3.60.

Stakes range from 0.5 to 10 points with the average being 2.5 points.

With 1 to 2 tips per day, that’s 5 points being bet per day. Betting £10 per point would translate to an average daily bet amount of between £25 and £50.

The Strike Rate has improved from its original 28% to 36% now which is good to see.

Winning and Losing Streaks

Analysing the detailed spreadsheet of Chloe’s actual results shows the longest losing sequence has been 14 losing days in a row. The longest winning sequence has been 6 winning days in a row. No tipster sites that I’m aware of publish these facts. Bettinggods used to but no longer do.

These figures match exactly with the statistical calculations. With a 36% Strike Rate, the Estimated Longest Losing Run (ELLR) over 500 events is 14 and Estimated Longest Winning Run is 6.

So what does that tell you? It tells you how big a betting bank you’ll need to be able to survive those losses.

Required Betting Bank

If the Strike Rate continues at around 36%, in the next 500 days of Chloe’s Football Focus tips, the longest losing run is likely to be 16 days. Knowing this you should prepare for at least once, probably in the next year, losing an average of 5 points every day for 16 days in a row. That’s a total loss of 80 points or £800 if you’re betting at £10 per point. Can your betting bank sustain that?

My recommendation would be to adjust your £/$/€ per point level based on your betting bank at the end of every month. After a winning month, you can raise your stakes slightly. After a losing month, you can reduce your stakes which will protect your betting bank.

Conclusion

In conclusion, Chloe’s Football Focus is being moderately successful.  However to turn that success into reasonable profit that covers your subscription costs AND puts cash in your pocket I reckon you’d need to be using £20 per point stakes. And with a potential 16-day losing streak in the next year, you’re going to need a hefty betting bank running into thousands.

But it’s the roller-coaster bank growth that does it for me. It doesn’t match my approach to betting so I’m still giving Chloe’s Football Focus a miss. For now.