Bettinggods Tipsters an in-depth scientific analysis

About Bettinggods

On their site Bettinggods says they that over 94,000 punters receive tips and previews from them every day. That’s an impressive number of customers. They are one of the most popular sports tipster services around right now.

The line-up changes from time to time but they generally have about 16 or 17 tipsters. Most are horse racing tipsters and there is a small group covering football but other sports are also covered.

I want to keep this analysis as brief and useful as possible. To do a full analysis and write-up of all Bettinggods would make this a very long article and many of these tipsters do not warrant an in-depth analysis at this time so will be omitted. For completeness though, I have included a table of all indicators for all tipsters at the end of the article.

Bettinggods Horse Racing Tipsters

There are currently 8 horse racing tipsters on Bettinggods. These can be split into two groups. A group of four horse racing tipsters who have been performing much better than the others and a group of four whose profits have not really taken off. The group of four not performing well are being omitted.

The horse racing tipsters making the cut are therefore Quentin Franks Racing, Horse Network Tipster and Ron Williams Racing. These have been the best performing horse racing tipsters. The Bookies Enemy doesn’t show quite the same upward trend momentum as the other three but is being included.

Bettinggods Other-Sports Tipsters

All five tipsters in this group have delivered very little profit over the past year. Their performance has flat-lined and I see little value in a full analysis of any tipster from this group.

 

Bettinggods Football Tipsters

I am including all three football tipsters to enable a future comparison between the football and racing tipsters on Bettinggods and those on Tipstrr one of Bettinggods’ rival sports tipster platforms.

SUMMARY

ROIELLRPvalR/RVfM
Quentin Franks Racinggreen light iconred light icongreen light icongreen light iconamber light icon
The Bookies Enemygreen light iconred light icongreen light iconamber light icongreen light icon
Horse Network Tipstergreen light iconred light iconamber light iconamber light icongreen light icon
Ron Williams Racinggreen light icongreen light iconamber light icongreen light iconamber light icon
Ultimate Football Tipsgreen light icongreen light iconamber light iconamber light iconamber light icon
Football Acca Tipsterred light icongreen light iconred light iconred light iconred light icon
Top Football Tipsterred light icongreen light iconred light iconamber light iconred light icon

ROI=Return on Investment  ELLR=Estimated Longest Losing Run
Pval=p-value  R/R=Reward/Risk  VfM=Value for Money

None of the Bettinggods tipsters has a reward/risk figure greater than 1 which is a little disappointing so these figures will be discussed in relative terms.

 

Quentin Franks Racing horse racing tipster

green light icon ROI: Quentin Franks Racing ROI over the long term is impressive. Over 5 years since July 2014 the ROI has been over 20%. In the last 12 months, which included two small losing months, it has averaged almost 38%. February this year (2019) was his all-time best single month with 193% ROI. Yes you read that right – 193%.

red light icon ELLR: A win rate of 23% puts the Estimated Longest Losing Run at 33. That’s potentially thirty-three losing bets in a row. As he publishes between 3 to 4 tips per day you could statistically be looking at going 9 days or more without a winner. This is confirmed by analysing his results. Over the 5 years, there have already been 3 losing runs of 9 days and 2 losing runs of 10 days.

On the positive side, again statistically, you could expect a winning streak of 6 bets or 2 winning days. But this doesn’t match his actual results – his performance is actually much better. While 80% of his winning streaks are either one or two days he has had 6 winnings days in a row four times and 7 winning days in a row twice.

green light icon P-VALUE: You have to go to 9 decimal places to get a meaningful p-value. The extremely low 0.000000005% indicates exceptionally strong evidence that it is Quentin Franks’ skill and expertise that is producing this 20% ROI rather than mere luck or chance.

green light icon REWARD/RISK: The reward/risk figure of 0.63 is above the average of all Bettinggods horse racing tipsters but puts him third out of the four racing tipsters included in this article.

VfM: Quentin Franks Racing is the most expensive service on Bettinggods. But when you look at his long-term success, it’s easy to see why that is. At £59 per month that makes each percentage point of ROI cost £2.74. Not the highest figure of all the Bettinggods racing tipsters but he’s the most costly of the four here.

Assessment: worth following but not in my portfolio

You can’t fail to be impressed with the long-term success of the Quentin Franks Racing service.

Only 12 losing months out of a total of 60 months in this five year period. And only once has there been two losing months in a row. Losing months are relatively small loses compared with the winning months. An average losing month is -12.5 points. An average winning month is +35 points.

So should you wait until he’s had a losing month before signing up for this service? That’s certainly one way to approach the timing issue of when to join but you may have to wait some time for that.

The only real downside here is those long losing streaks. You’ll need to set aside quite a sizeable betting bank to endure those.

To cope with a pessimistic worst-case scenario of two longest losing streaks in a row as soon as you join and still have betting money to start over the recommended bank is 3 times ELLR times the average tip stake. In this case that is 3 x 33 x 1.35 = 133 points. At £10 per point staking, this would suggest a betting bank of £1000 to £1500 set aside to follow this service.

But the rewards appear to be there if you can suffer those losing streaks.

SEE FULL STATS

 

 

The Bookies Enemy horse racing tipster

green light icon ROI: The best ROI of all the Bettinggods tipsters at over 21% since the service started in July 2017. The last 12 months ROI has been just over 14%. The previous 6 months has been 23% and the most recent 3-months ROI has been 34% however his best-ever ROI of 116% happened in those three months.

red light icon ELLR: These tips have a low win rate of 19% which gives an Estimated Longest Losing Run of 35 bets. At an average of 2 to 3 tips per day, this could mean 14 days without a winner.

Results for this service show the actual longest losing run has been 10 days which has happened only once in January 2018. Over 90% of losing streaks have been 5 losing days or less.

green light icon P-VALUE: The Bookies Enemy p-value is under 1% which indicates strong evidence that the ROI being delivered here is due to skill and expertise rather than luck.

amber light icon REWARD/RISK: The reward/risk figure is the lowest of the four tipsters in this assessment group. This suggests that although the ROI is the best on review it’s also the riskiest proposition. If you are a risk taker this will not present a problem. A more conservative bettor might choose to avoid this tipster.

green light icon VfM: The Value-for-Money is the best on offer in this group. Each percentage point of ROI costs a reasonable £1.79

Assessment: wait & see

October’18 to February ’19 proved to be a torrid time for this tipster with a loss of 119 points and 5 losing months in a row. If you had joined this service in September’18 on the back of 13 winning months from 15 (and frankly who wouldn’t have) it would have taken balls of steel and very deep pockets to weather that particular storm.  But, fair dues, he kept plugging away and success seems now to be returning.

There isn’t enough consistency right now to include this tipster in my portfolio.

SEE FULL STATS

 

Horse Network Tipster horse racing tipster

green light icon ROI: A  ROI of just under 16% over the past 14 months is delivering an average of 38 points profit per month. ROI has ranged from -25% to 57%. The average has been pretty consistent over 12-, 6- and 3-month periods with figures of 14%, 15% and 12% respectively.

red light icon ELLR: An Estimated Longest Losing Run figure of 48 is the worst on show here. That’s a potential of 48 losing bets in a row.

Actual results for this tipster shows that there have been 23 times when the losing streak has been between 30 to 39 losing tips and 4  times when the losing streak has been 40 or more losing tips. The longest run of losing days has been 14 and the longest run of winning days has been 7.

amber light icon P-VALUE: The p-value is a relatively high 6% which indicates that,  at best, there is only moderate evidence of the ROI figure being the result of skill.

amber light icon REWARD/RISK: The reward/risk ratio is the second best of the four racing tipsters included in this assessment but at 0.7 it is still not great.

green light icon VfM: Value for Money is good with each percentage point of ROI costing only £1.84

Assessment: do not follow

When this tipster has a losing run it lasts 3 days on average. When they have a winning day, 4 times out of 5 it only lasts for 1 day.

On the plus side, The ROI is reasonable and the Value-for-Money is good.  On the negative side, there’s that big ELLR figure and the p-value suggesting the possibility that this tipster is just lucky.

Setting all these aside and simply looking at the profits graph over the past year you can’t deny this tipster is being very successful. The graph is certainly filled with monthly ups and downs but the trend is most definitely and strongly upwards.

Long losing runs means you need big betting banks, At £10/pt I would need to dedicate £1,800 as a betting bank to follow this tipster.

My goal is to build a high-performing, low-cost portfolio of tipsters and there are better tipsters to invest that £1,800 in.

SEE FULL STATS

 

 

Ron Williams Racing horse racing tipster

green light icon ROI: Ron has produced 15% ROI since joining Bettinggods 12 months ago in Jul’18. This is the lowest ROI of the four racing tipsters in this assessment. Its a little on the low side for a horse racing tipster but anything over 10% is good in my book.

Over the last 6-month period ROI has been just under 12 % and in the last 3 months it’s been disappointing 1.5%

green light icon ELLR: These tips have a good win rate of 31%. This win rate would be typical if you simply backed favourites but Ron’s average odds are a shade under 8.0 or 7/1. This gives an Estimated Longest Losing Run of a relatively low 18 and practically twice as good as the other racing tipsters here.

green light icon P-VALUE: At just over 1% the p-value is a strong indication that its Ron’s skill and expertise and not luck which is delivering the 15% ROI.

green light icon REWARD/RISK: At 0.87 the reward/risk ratio the highest here and is not too far off the preferred value of 1.

amber light icon VfM: This is quite a costly service. AT £2.55 per percent of ROI its is the second costliest of the group of four racing tipsters.

Assessment: wait and see

There are no red indicators with Ron Williams Racing which makes it the “safest” choice of the Bettinggods horse racing tipsters. It’s not the highest ROI you could sign up for but the relatively low ELLR means its an affordable betting bank for most punters.

The longest losing run of days has been 8 and the longest winning run of days has been 5. That’s pretty well balanced.

The strong upward trend of the profits graph in the long term is a big positive although the more recent decline in ROI is concerning.

Does it go in my tipster portfolio? Probably yes but not right now. Its a timing thing and the recent 3-month decline in ROI is concerning so, for now, it will be a watching brief.

SEE FULL STATS

 

 

Ultimate Football Tips football tipster

amber light icon ROI: With an overall ROI of 11% this is the best of the Bettinggods football tipsters. But this overall figure flatters this tipster. The last 12 months have seen an average of 3.28% ROI. The recent 6-months ROI saw a rise to 6.52% but with a bad losing month in June the previous 3-month period ROI has been negative at -4.25%. On the back of this, any actual points profit made have been in single figures for each of the past 5 months.

green light icon ELLR: The Estimated Longest Losing Run figure of 11 is reasonable. Analysing the results of these tips shows an actual losing run of 11  in Sep’18 with a further losing run of 10 in Mar’19. His actual longest losing run in terms of days so far has been 9 days straight and his longest winning run has been 4 days in a row.

amber light icon P-VALUE: The p-value of 6% gives only moderate evidence that the ROI being produced here is due to skill or expertise rather than simply chance.

amber light icon REWARD/RISK: The reward/risk ratio is a low 0.48 figure but it is the highest of the 3 football tipsters.

amber light icon VfM: With an overall ROI of 11% and a monthly subscription cost of £29 gives us a VfM figure of £2.61 per ROI percent. This is relatively expensive but it’s the cheapest of three footballer tipsters – the others are even more costly.

Assessment: do not follow

Except for the ELLR indicator, everything else is just average at best. The small profits and the recent decline in ROI are enough to evidence to put this tipster in the “do not follow” category.

SEE FULL STATS

 

 

Football Acca Tipster football tipster

red light icon ROI: With only 2.35% ROI this is an example of why bookies love punters who bet multiples,

green light icon ELLR: The Estimated Longest Losing Run is 10 is good.

red light icon P-VALUE: Negative level-stakes profit which means an undefined p-value. This suggests the ROI being produced here, what there is of it, has been down to luck. There is no evidence of skill or expertise.

red light icon REWARD/RISK: Football Acca Tipster is in the bottom three of all Bettinggods tipsters for this value. You are getting very little return for a great deal of risk.

red light icon VfM: AT £29/month for subscription makes each percent of ROI a very costly £12.

Assessment: do not follow.

Why on earth would you follow this tipster? You’d be better off sticking your money in a saving account with HSBC or M&S right now. You’ll get 5% there for a year rather than the 2% this service is offering. And you don’t have to waste your time placing any bets.

SEE FULL STATS

 

 

Top Football Tipster football tipster

red light icon ROI: An overall ROI of 4% is marginally better than Football Acca Tipster but its still less than you’d get from an M&S savings account over a year.

ELLR: A great Estimated Longest Losing Run of 6 means you don’t have to wait long to get a winner. But don’t get too excited when you do.

red light icon P-VALUE: The p-score value of 45% indicates that there is no skill or expertise being shown here. The same ROI could just as easily be obtained by pure chance.

red light icon REWARD/RISK: A very poor 0.45 value.

red light icon VfM: Each percent of ROI costs almost £10. The best that can be said here is that it’s not as bad as the Football Acca Tipster.

Assessment: do not follow

Put your money in a savings account with HSBC or M&S and over a year you’ll get a better return on your investment.

SEE FULL STATS

 

ROIELLRPvalR/RVfm
Flat Racing Mastergreen light iconred light iconred light iconred light iconred light icon
Each Way Leadergreen light icongreen light iconred light iconred light iconamber light icon
Phoenix Racingred light iconred light iconred light iconred light iconred light icon
QF Value Tipsgreen light iconred light icongreen light iconred light icongreen light icon
Vision Racinggreen light iconred light icongreen light icongreen light icongreen light icon
Premier Greyhound Tipsgreen light iconred light iconred light iconred light icongreen light icon
Golf Betting Expertgreen light iconred light iconred light iconred light icongreen light icon
Cricket Betting Tipstergreen light iconred light icongreen light icongreen light icongreen light icon
Top NHL Tipsgreen light icongreen light iconred light iconred light icongreen light icon
US Sports Cappergreen light icongreen light iconamber light icongreen light icongreen light icon
scroll to top