It’s mid-November 2019 and high time I diversified my tipster portfolio even more.
And after a fairly lengthy search and my usual in-depth analysis, I believe I’ve hit on an excellent candidate. Basket Tipster who recently made it onto October’s Tipsters of the Month.
Diversification is the practice of spreading your investments around so that your exposure to any one type of asset is limited. This practice is designed to help reduce the volatility of your portfolio over time. The logic is that losses in any one share can be counter-balanced by profits in others giving you steadier more dependable growth.
In the stock market, you can spread your investments across different sectors, for example, utilities, energy or healthcare. And you can also choose a mix of shares – risky shares with a potentially high return along with low-risk shares for lower but steadier returns.
In the tipster world, you could equate different sports with the different financial sectors and the tipsters in those sports as the different shares.
My current portfolio contains tipsters for football and horse racing so I was looking to diversify into another sport.
Tennis or Basketball would be a good fit for me – there would be plenty of matches and markets available across a good part of the year.
The headline figures for Basket Tipster read like this.
Consistency is a big factor in my book and this service looks to be absolutely exemplary. The performance graph had my eyes out on stalks. Where has this guy been hiding!?
Here’s the bank growth graph as of mid-November 2019. It’s practically a straight line – month after month of rock-steady profit.
If this service finishes in profit this month, November 2019, that will have been a full year – 12 straight months of consistent and steady profit. That’s phenomenal.
Before continuing I must point out that I found a few discrepancies between Tipstrr headline figures and my own calculations.
The headline figures on the Tipstrr website shows Basket Tipster’s ROI as 8.7%. I believe that figure is wrong. It’s more like 11.45%.
I base my calculations on the tipster’s data shown on the Tipstrr statistics page. The average odds figure of 1.95 I agree with the Win Rate (Strike Rate) of 57% I agree with too. You can do the following rough calculation for ROI using just these two figures.
An SR of 57% means for every 100 bets you win 57 of them and lose 43. Betting 1 point on each of the 100 bets with average odds of 1.95 for each winning bet you make a profit of 0.95 points. 57 bets times 0.95 points profit gives a total of 54.15 points profit. But you also lose 43 points. So overall your profit is 54.15 minus 43 = 11.15 points. A profit of 11.15 points over 100 points staked equates to an ROI of 11.15%. This is much closer to my calculated 11.45% than Tipstrr’s 8.7%.
This discrepancy in ROI is significant. All my calculations for other Tipstrr tipsters are done in exactly the same way and they pretty much match spot on every time. I’m taking my calculated figure as correct.
Also, the headline profit figure of 601 points is clearly wrong. Simply adding up the monthly profits on the Monthly Breakdown table shown at the bottom of the Basket Tipster statistics page gives a total of 445 points.
Could these discrepancies be part of the reason I’ve not been able to track down this golden nugget until now?
An even bigger question is why has this tipster not made it onto the Tipstrr PRO list – their best performing tipsters?
If and when it does I imagine the current £39/month subscription cost will go up substantially. So, if you too are looking for a new tipster, maybe now is the perfect time to join the service.
In the 677 tips published 91% have been single bets with 9% of them being multiples (doubles, trebles, etc.). The singles have generated 63% of the total profit whereas interestingly the multiples have generated 37% of the total profit. Put another way, over a third of the total profit, is generated from less than 10% of bets – the multiples.
At level stakes, the ROI drops slightly to just over 10% so following the advised stakes is the preferred way to go.
Most (almost 60%) of Basket Tipster’s tips are advised at 10 points but tips stakes do range between 1 point and 10 points.
Basket Tipster himself states, in his About page, “I advise you all to follow the staking plan when following my tips. You can bet your own way of course but for me, it’s as follows… 10/10 = 1 unit. When you see bets advised at 3/10, 4/10, 5/10, etc, I still have faith in them and wish you to bet on them, however, they are generally not as strong or involve a little bit more risk. Still, we must bet on them all and stake accordingly.”
Markets are predominantly Asian Handicap (AH) and Over/Under markets. These account for 80% of the tips but 1X2 and Home/Away do get the occasional look in.
This can be a slight downside to this service. It’s not a set-and-forget service. Tips are published right across the 16 hours between 12pm to 4 am and many can be 6 hours or less before the event starts. This means you really need to be on your toes if you want to catch all the tip notifications and get the bets on at the advised odds. But with this level of consistency, I think you can be fairly relaxed about it – if you miss a few it’ll not matter there’ll be more along pretty soon.
Most tips (85%) are in the 1.70 to 2.39 range which produces almost half of the overall profit. ROI in this odds range is around 5% according to the statistics page. I don’t have easy access to the details of all the individual tips to confirm or refute this 5% but from the overall ROI discrepancy mentioned above, I’m taking the Tipstrr figure with a pinch of salt and reckon this figure is higher.
Basket Tipster is currently running at an average of 38 points profit per month on an ROI of 11.45% (my calculation) and zero losing months out of 11 (November is yet to finish).
ROI over the last 6 months has been an impressive 21.41% and over the most recent 3 months ROI has been 13.95%.
The red line in the graph below shows the rolling 3-month average profit. This has been steady and consistent at just over 25 points for the last 6 rolling quarters. This indicates a solid and consistent performance.
Strike Rate (SR) aka Win Rate is an average 57% and has ranged between 50% – 90%.
That 57% SR indicates statistically an Estimated Longest Losing Run (ELLR) of 8 losing bets – a good low figure. With between 2 and 3 tips per day that could see somewhere up to 3 losing days in a row.
The p-value is a nice low 0.31%. The lower this figure is the better. The p-value is an indication of whether the ROI being delivered is due to skill/expertise or is just as likely to be due to chance or luck. This low figure indicates strong evident the performance is due to skill/expertise.
The cost/ROI=£3.41. Subscription costs £39 per month and it produces 11.45% ROI which means each 1% of ROI costs £3.41. In isolation, this might appear to be comparatively costly but I believe it’s cheap for such month-on-month consistency.
The Reward/Risk figure which measures performance variation is 0.55 which is in the mid-range for tipsters. In combination with the consistency, I would class this as good.
My analysis indicates Basket Tipster is an extremely solid performer deserving a place in my tipster portfolio.
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