ROI: Return On Investment. Bigger is better.
PM: Profitable months / Total months. Bigger is better.
ELLR: Estimated Longest Losing Run. Smaller is better.
PV: P-value – skill vs luck. Smaller is better.
VfM: Value for Money. Cost of 1% of ROI in subscription fees. Smaller is better
Risk: Risk/Reward rating: Low Risk is better.
What to Look For:
ROI: Return on Investment
ROI indicates the actual profit as a percentage of total stakes. ROI is always useful as it puts profit into context.
The type of ROI you can make often varies based on the Win Rate and the type of sport the tipster specialises in.
It’s not unusual to see top racing tipsters hit 30% ROI or more. Whereas a football tipster making over 5% ROI is doing very well.
It’s also not unusual to have more difficulty getting the advised odds of a racing tipster compared with a football tipster.
Therefore, the ROI needs to be judged in the context of the tipster profile and the markets chosen.
PM: Profitable months
How many profitable months has the tipster produced from all the months of operation?
The longer a tipster has been in operation and been successful the better.
If the tipster is profitable but has only 50% profitable months then it’s a bit of a lottery if you’ll get a profitable month when you start following the tips.
If the tipster is profitable and has 80% profitable months then it’s more likely you’ll hit a winning month when you start following the tipster.
ELLR: Estimated Longest Losing Run of tips.
ELLR is based on the number of total tips and the Win Rate of those tips.
Knowing how long a losing streak could be with a tipster allows you to prepare for handling it financially (by adjusting your stakes) and mentally just by knowing it was expected.
The P-value is a very useful indicator. It comes from a statistical test to evaluate the probability of obtaining a set of results by chance (as opposed to skill). It is obtained from a formula that uses three variables: overall Win Rate, ROI, and the average odds of all selections.
The lower the number the better and as close to 0 as possible. A high number indicates either a lack of data or a set of results that might be based on luck.
Tipsters with higher p-values are usually those tipsters either targeting bigger priced selections OR those with not enough data.
VfM: Value for money
How much each 1% of ROI costs in subscription fees.
It is a simple calculation VfM = subscription fee / (%ROI * 100)
This is useful in comparing tipsters and helping you choose between them.
For example, two tipsters are producing the same ROI but one charges £49 per month subscription the other £19 per month.
In this example, it is clear that the £19 / month tipster is better value for money.
Where it’s not so clear cut calculating the cost of 1% ROI makes comparison much easier.
RISK: Risk/Reward Ratio
The Reward you are hoping to get is the ROI.
The Risk you are taking on to achieve that reward is based on the volatility of the tipster performance.
Money invested in a bank savings account has low reward but zero risk (almost) – any losses would be minimal.
Money invested in a new crypto-currency has high risk but potentially high reward – you could lose everything.
Low Risk + High Reward is the ideal combination.
Your appetite for risk will dictate where your comfort zone is.