Under scrutiny : Tipstrr’s May’21 Top 10 Horse Racing Tipsters

Tipstrr recently posted their normal Monthly Top 10 Racing tipsters for May so it’s time to see if there are any hidden gems waiting to be discovered.

This report starts of with Tipstrr’s Top 10 countdown together with the tipster’s ROI and a snippet from their report.

Then it looks at how each Tipser has performed not just this month but over the long term.

Finally, you can see a head-to-head comparison of all these tipsters over a 12-month period, the last 6-months, and the most recent 3-months.

It concludes with a personal reflection on who I rate as the best of this bunch and who could be worth following.

Tipstrr Top 10 Racing Tipster countdown

Here is how Tipstrr counted down their Top 10 racing tipster’s May’21. It includes the number of tips published that month and the ROI achieved by each tipster together with a highlight snippet from their On Target Tips

10.  On Target Tips  ROI: 23% Tips: 176
“…enjoying his tenth profitable month in the last eleven…”

9. Landry Horse Racing  ROI: 24% Tips: 119
“…overall trend continues to head in the right direction...”

8. Clyde Shelton Turf Wars  ROI: 24% Tips: 164
“…hitting peak form just in time for the busiest period of the flat racing calendar…”

7. AG Tips ROI: 36% Tips: 78
“… a solid 34% yield over the last four months…”

6. Improvers  ROI: 39% Tips: 99
“… fourth time in six months that his monthly ROI has exceeded 24%...”

5. OnTheNose ROI: 55% Tips: 27
“…increased his ROI over the last six profitable months to a very healthy 40%…”

4. Heli’s Horses ROI: 65% Tips: 54
“… service can sometimes blow hot and cold….”

3. GV Early Alerts ROI: 66% Tips: 73
“… a whopping 140% ROI as recently as February…”

2. BoomBoom ROI: 74% Tips: 33
“…eight consecutive monthly gains…”

1.CD Systems Daily Bargain ROI: 209% Tips: 30
“…topping our Best Tipster rankings for the second consecutive month…”

Tipster Performance Long-term

“One swallow does not a summer make” as the old adage goes.

We need to look beyond the single month of May to see how consistent these tipsters have been over a much longer period.

Have any of these tipsters been churning out consistent month-after-month profits? Who’s hugging the trendline best?

There are 5 that stand out.

BoomBoom – has an interesting dip in an otherwise good upward trend – but much more about that later.
OnTheNose – shows solid consistency with only a couple of losing months
Improvers – is following a trend quite well but there are many ups and downs
AG Tips – a short flatline followed by an solid upward trend over the last year
On Target Tips – only two losing months in the last 18

Side-by-Side Comparison

Having seen how each tipster has performed over the last 12 to 18 months let’s see how they compare against each other.

Comparing tipsters against each other is a little tricky. Especially with no easy access to Tipstrr’s underlying database of results. So what follows isn’t exact but it is a good approximation.

So how do you compare these tipsters side-by-side when for example:

• CD Systems Daily Bargain tips are always “to win” with an average stake of 1 point
• AG Tips always tips 10 points each-way, which is a 20 point stake for every tip
• Improvers is a 40/60 split between each-way and “to win” with an average stake of 8

The graphs below show how the tipsters compare if you had invested the same amount of money per tip with each tipster.

You can see that over 12-month, 6-month, and most recent 3-month periods BoomBoom has been in the first or second spot in this group for all time periods.

AG Tips has never out of the top 5.

And CD Systems Daily Bargain has always been there or thereabouts as has Improvers and On Target Tips.

If you were to rank them based on a point scoring system giving more weight to performance over long periods of time the table would look something like this:

Boomboom

The Boomboom graph I found really interesting.

Boomboom has had a good 8 months run recently but the 8 months before that looks a bit up and down.

But what particularly struck me from the graph was the big dip around Aug’20 – the losses in August/September and the recovery. If you were to take these two months out the graph would follow the trendline very nicely indeed.

So did something specific happen in August?

Looking at Boomboom’s performance history stats in the 12 months leading up to Aug’20 the average odds of tips had been around 6 (5/1).

In Aug’21 the average odds doubled to around13 (12/1) and in Sep’21 the average odds of tips was approximately 10 (9/1).

Since those two months, the average tip odds has settled to around 9.5. That’s 50% higher than they had been previous to Aug/Sep.

So yes – the odds of tips changed significantly.

You might begin to think that maybe Boomboom started to make changes to his approach over these two months. Maybe August and September were a testing ground for new rules and higher odds but it wasn’t working out too well. Eventually though, by October things got sorted out and performance was back on track. Its possible.

What’s also Interesting is the average ROI before Aug/Sep’21 was around 12%. After Sep’21 on higher odds, the average ROI has been an impressive 47% and Win Rate has stayed pretty much the same at 21%.

It looks suspiciously like something changed. But this is all supposition of course. Only Boomboom knows the real story.

On Target Tips

Apart from a dip in June last year On Target Tips has been sticking close to that very positive upward trend line.

AG Tips

AG Tips is something similar to Boomboom however there is a reason for the early months being so unsettled that you can read about in the full technical analysis of AG Tips.

CD Systems Daily Bargain

CD Systems Daily Bargain has only recently gotten out of the doldrums to produce some real profit in the last 4 months.

Improvers

Improvers has a bit of a saw-tooth profile but appears to be following the trendline reasonably closely.

Conclusion

The pick of this bunch for me is On Target Tips and AG Tips. On Target Tips has had 16 profitable months from 19 (84%) and AG Tips 18 profitable months from 23 (78%) – two of the three highest percentages in this group Boomboom being the third at also 78%.

BoomBoom I’m willing to give the benefit of the doubt to. I do think Aug/Sep’20 was in fact a transition to a new higher odds approach. He has produced 21 profitable months from 27 (78%) after all and it looks very much like the new approach is paying off handsomely and producing great profits.  

Improvers is worth keeping an eye on.

You can check out the full stats of any of these tipster using these links

CD Systems Daily Bargain | BoomBoom | GV Early Alerts | Heli’s Horses | OnTheNose | Improvers | AG Tips | Clyde Shelton Turf Wars | Landry Horse Racing | On Target Tips