This post contains the historical record of a football predictions systems I developed for the Under/Over 2.5 goals market.
The system started off well but failed after 6 months and was discontinued.
ATO System Performance after 4 weeks
I have started this system off with predictions for only Over 2.5 goals. Having done further research and analysis at the end of September I decided to include UNDER 2.5 goals football predictions as well.
The performance graph so far looks very encouraging with 4 weeks all healthily in profit.
There have been 151 selections – 81 winners and 70 losers – a Strike Rate (SR) of 54%.
The profit, using £10 stakes, has been £257. That’s delivering 17% Return on Investment (ROI).
There have been 14 winning days and 4 losing days.
These are excellent figures by any measure
What next ?
Just more of the same. Its far too early days yet and not enough data to think of tweaking anything just yet.
ATO System Performance after 7 weeks
After a bit of a roller-coaster few weeks with the Against-the-Odds system I thought a quick review would be in order.
The system started out 7 weeks ago and then included only Over 2.5 Goals predictions. It was going pretty well. This was changed on week 3 to include Under 2.5 goals predictions.
The performance graph so far looks like this.
System Performance Overs and Unders
A three-week period of good profits followed by a decline starting week 4 that has only recently picked up in week 7.
So what caused that decline?
Separating the Overs 2.5 Goals selections and Unders shows a marked difference in performance.
And it was clearly the Under 2.5 Goals selections that caused those loses.
Looking at the just the Over 2.5 Goals selections the performance looks like this.
Apart from a small loss in week 6 it shows a nice steady upward trend in profits week on week.
System Performance Overs Only
On the other hand the Unders performance is dramatically different.
The first week of including Unders (week 3) saw them deliver a nice profit but the following three weeks was the opposite story. Three weeks of loses.
System Performance Unders only
Exclude Under 2.5 Goals Selections?
To exclude the Under 2.5 Goals predictions after such a short period would be short-sighted. All sports prediction systems and methods experience short-term ups and downs. Some overcome the set-backs others don’t and never recover.
So I will keep the Unders for now and monitor the situation.
However, because the Over 2.5 Goals predictions seem to perform better I am increasing their bet stake from 1 point to 2 points. If the Unders continue to perform poorly then they will have less effect on overall profits. If they turn-around and improve then that will increase profits even more.
Applying this 1-point-Unders-2-point-Overs staking plan to the results so far gives a better performance profile. A loss in week 6 yes but a return to that nice steady upward trend in profits.
System Performance Under & Overs with Different Stakes
What next for the Future?
Seven weeks is no time at all to tell if a system or method works. So I’m keeping an open mind on this one.
If you follow my blog you’ll be watching the development of this system in real-time. The trials and tribulations, the analyses and tweaks, the hair loss and lost sleep. But maybe, just maybe, this time next year Rodney…
ATO System Performance after 12 weeks
This is a review of the Under/Overs Against the Odds system that has been running now for 12 weeks.
It started with only OVER 2.5 goals selections for the first 3 weeks. UNDER 2.5 goals where then included from week 4 onwards.
The review of how the system was performing after week 7 highlighted that changing from a level-stakes staking plan would benefit things so this have been implemented.
The initial three-weeks delivered relatively high levels of profits each week. That was then followed by a period of 7 weeks where we saw the first losing weeks. The profits where much more modest but reassuringly we still managed to come out of that period around £100 up. The last 2 weeks have both been profitable and given us £191. (All the profit figures are based on £10 staking points)
The Strike rate is still above 50% which is really good because our Average Winning Odds (AWO) is 2.16. A 51% SR in combination with an AWO of 2.16 means a profitable system.
During the period of 85 days the system has been running there have 38 winnings days and 23 losing days. There were no selections on the remained of the days.
The longest winning days streak has been 5 and the longest losing days streak is 3.
Example of 51% SR combined with 2.16 AWO using £1 level stakes
- A SR of 51% would mean, on average, 51 winners and 49 losers every 100 bets
- Using level-stake £1 bets 51 winners at odds of 2.16 would give £59.16 profit
- 49 Losers would give £49 loss
- £59.16 profit minus £49 loss leaves £10.16 profit
- At £1 level stakes £10.16 profit on £100 invested is just over 10% ROI.
What next for the Future?
With a very decent 15% ROI I’m happy to leave things the way they are for now and see how the system holds up over the next few months.
January 2018 Review
This system is now in its fifth month and it has delivered profit every month since its inception in Sep’17.
In my continuing quest to refine and improve this system I did this analysis of the system in mid-January’18.
In an earlier system review post some weeks ago I identified the Unders system selections were under-performing but rather than removing them I decided to leave them in and keep them under review.
To allow like-for-like comparisons the figures below are all based on level stakes and shows the Profit or Loss (P/L) and the Return on Investment (ROI) for different levels of odds.
Under and Over 2.5 Goals Predictions
Overall the system is generating a positive ROI at each level of odds which is good.
But I wanted to see which element was performing better – the Under 2.5 goals predictions or the Over 2.5 goals predictions.
Under 2.5 Goals Predictions
Separating out the Under 2.5 selections the figures are as follows:
Overall the Unders selections generate profits and deliver a positive ROI however you can see negative ROI starting to creep in at odds over 2.40 and over. The low ROI of 1.7% overall is also disappointing.
Over 2.5 Goals Predictions
The Over 2.5 selections profile looks like this:
The Overs selections are generating a strong positive ROI at all level of odds just like the combined Under and Overs selections in the first table above.
It appears the Unders selections are continuing to have a negative effect on the Overs ROI figure.
I will divide the system into two independent systems and track the Overs and the Unders independently.
The beginning of next month, February’18, might be an opportune time to make this split.
This will hopefully allow me to see what opportunities there may be in finessing the Unders selections. For example, to see if its possible to lower the minimum odds for Unders selection to below 2.00 and improve ROI.