Tricolor21 is a football tipster and for 15 months his betting bank was going nowhere. Bumbling along winning a few quid one month only to lose it the next.
Then suddenly in March 2021 it took off like a rocket!
So what happened? What changed? And should I be interested?
I compared the 7 full months up to Feb’21 against the 7 full months from Mar’21 to the end of September’21.
Rather than bore you with what didn’t change here’s what seems to have happened.
Two big changes:
- All tips before Mar’21 were advised at 1 point. From March onwards tips started to be advised in a range from 1 to 3 points.
- The monthly average number of tips for the HT/FT market more than doubled after Feb’21 from under 2 to 4
Impact of change to advised stakes
Tricolor21’s fortunes would have turned round in March without any change to his advised staking. But because he did change, profits have been much better.
The blue line in the graph below shows how profits would have grown if he had continued using a fixed 1 point per tip.
The red line shows profits based on Tricolor21’s changed advised stakes.
Impact of HT/FT market tips
On the face of it there seemed to be no real change in the average odds of the tips published by Tricolor21. Up to Mar’21 average odds were 2.17 and afterwards it was 2.27.
But it was his introduction of tips on the HT/FT market that seem to have caused that shift.
HT/FT tips only started to appear in Nov’20 but the monthly average number of tips for the HT/FT market more than doubled after Feb’21.
And it was the relatively high odds of these tips that pushed the average odds up.
His Win Rate for these tips also improved from 40% to 50% and this combination has had a signifcant impact on profits.
Applying the 80 /20 Rule
What’s clear from Tricolor21’s stats page is that HT/FT tips account for only 2% of all tips but have produced 20% of all profit.
Pareto’s old 80/20 rule does seem to apply well here with the combination of Over/Under, 1X2 and HT/FT tips making up only 25% of the tips but contributing a staggerring 98% of all profit.
Looks to me like being selective and only following these three tip types there’s significant profit to be made here at advised stakes and an even better ROI looks possible using fixed stakes.
ADVISED STAKES
| Market | Tips | SR | Profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AH | 1005 | 46% | 36.50 | 2.3% |
| Over/Under | 218 | 56% | 51.01 | 13.9% |
| 1X2 | 190 | 49% | 62.57 | 18.4% |
| Win&BTTS | 105 | 33% | 9.13 | 7.2% |
| BTTS | 32 | 44% | -11.65 | -21.2% |
| HT/FT | 29 | 48% | 25.17 | 50.3% |
| O/U Away | 16 | 38% | -6.77 | -20.5% |
| O/U 1H | 13 | 38% | -1.95 | -8.9% |
| O/U Home | 13 | 54% | 0.40 | 1.3% |
| O/U 2H | 13 | 46% | -1.62 | -6.0% |
FIXED STAKES
| Market | Tips | SR | Profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AH | 1005 | 46% | 63.65 | 0.6% |
| Over/Under | 218 | 56% | 304.45 | 14.0% |
| 1X2 | 190 | 49% | 350.93 | 18.5% |
| Win&BTTS | 105 | 33% | 40.05 | 3.8% |
| BTTS | 32 | 44% | -52.62 | -16.4% |
| HT/FT | 29 | 48% | 172.88 | 59.6% |
| O/U Away | 16 | 38% | -9.50 | -5.9% |
| O/U 1H | 13 | 38% | -7 | -5.4% |
| O/U Home | 13 | 54% | 4.70 | 3.6% |
| O/U 2H | 13 | 46% | -20.57 | -15.8% |
So how do you assess Tricolor21 as a tipster?
For me it only makes sense to assess the “new-and-improved” Tricolor21 that started in March 2021 when there was the change away from flat 1 points states and the increase in HT/FT tips.
It has been such a significant change in approach since Mar’21 that it makes all previous months’ results much less relevant.
ELLR
The Estimated Longest Losing Run is 11 which is nice and low. The Actual Longest Losing Run has been 8 (ignoring voids, half-wons and half-lost results)
The Estimated Longest Winning Run is 9 and the Actual Longest Winning Run has been 6.
p-value
The p-value based on the 700 tips over the last 7 months is 1.3%. This is strong evidence these results are not down to chance. If he had similar continued success over next 7 months that p-value would reduce to well under 0.01% which would be very strong indication that success is due to a real skill rather than luck.
Risk/Reward
The Risk/Reward figure is 0.48 which is very good – the lower this figure is the better – less variation in ROI (risk) and more ROI (reward). You could possibly consider that this low Risk/Reward figure offsets the less-than-perfect p-value.
Value-for-Money
Subscription cost is relatively high though at £49 / month. This makes each percent of ROI cost around £5. That’s high compared to the average of £2.50
Effort
There are 3 tips published per day. Almost half of all tips for the Asian Handicap Market. But as we’ve seen there’s little profit coming from these – they aren’t delivering any real value – so why would you follow them?
Following only the Over/Under, 1X2 and HT/FT tips would mean only 1 tip per day on average but with the possibility of much better profits. Less work for more money sounds good to me.
Conclusion
This appears to have all the hallmarks of a very good tipster going forward.
I’m keeping a very close eye on Tricolor21 over the next three months and if all goes well you can expect to see a full technical analysis report early in the new year.
You can find out more about Tricolor21 here
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