TipstrrPRO listings – why the numbers don’t add up

As a normal part of my research, I went checking Tipstrr PRO to find out who was on still on the list, who was new and who had dropped off.

But what I found was confusing, to say the least.

Take for instance tipster CD Systems – Daily Bargain currently at the top of the listing on the TipstrrPRO page.

I discovered discrepancies

In my technical analysis of tipsters I use the data in the tipster’s stats page for my calculations and they didn’t tally up with these figures. Why not?

I’ve asked Tipstrr for clarification but have yet to get what I believe to be a mathematically sound explanation of the specific differences.

I asked  – Tipstrr answered

When I emailed Tipstrr asking why there were discrepancies between the figures on the TipstrrPRO page and the equivalent tipster’s stats page they responded with

Hi Rob,
The discrepancy is based on calculations of “average stake” and was devised to allow for direct comparison between tipsters
To explain, a tipster who does 1-2/10 would show lower overall profits compares with a tipster who always does 10/10 – through no real fault of their own.
So the overall profits are calculated using an average stake.

​Tipster A average stake 1/10, 26% ROI, +155 units
Tipster B average stake 10/10, 10% ROI +1,000 units

​shows as 

Tipster A average stake 1/10, 26% ROI, +1,550 units
Tipster B average stake 10/10, 10% ROI +1,000 units

That’s a simplified example, but hopefully highlights how/why it’s done. We are reviewing this with some back end redevelopment work we’ve been doing during the gap in sports.

Hope that makes sense.”

It does make absolute sense. And they appear to recognise there is a discrepancy although that may be because I framed the question using the word “discrepancy”.

The answer wasn’t good enough

Their response explained what they were trying to do but didn’t answer the specific numeric discrepancies I had reported.

On the tipster’s stats page, there is a Level Stakes button (turns blue when you click it on) which I’ve been informed by Tipstrr recalculates everything based on a fixed stake of 10 units for every tip.

Which you would think ties up with what they’re trying to do.

But the figures it generates don’t match the TipstrrPRO page, UNLESS, the tipster uses level-stakes i.e. has always tipped with the same stakes. In this case, the figures do match but otherwise, they don’t.

The problem I was reporting is when you use the level-stakes button and choose “Last 6 months” on the drop-down on the right-hand side. The profit for CD Systems is recalculated at 41.41 using a stake of 1 unit for each tip. In other words, the 6-month profit using 10 unit stakes is 414, not 289.

It’s the same issue with ROI. CD System’s level stakes ROI over the last 6-months has been 26.5% using 10 unit stakes, not 18.5%.

Tipstrr’s intention for their calculation “…to allow for direct comparison between tipsters…” is a good intention but the maths is wrong somewhere.

More questions raised

All of this begs a couple of questions:

Firstly, which data is correct? Or perhaps more accurately, which data is more correct? Tipstrr’s calculation to allow for direct comparison between tipsters or Tipstrr’s calculation based on level stakes using the level stakes button?

Secondly, if you decide to follow a tipster based on a comparison using fixed level-stakes are you going to place all your bets at a fixed 10 unit stakes and ignore the tipsters advised stakes?

Would you ignore the tipster’s staking advice that you’re actually paying for?

How do you make the direct comparison?

Comparing tipsters is a complex mix of different factors but comparing ROI is both simple and useful.

To complete the picture here are Tipstrr’s figures as listed on the TipstrrPRO page.

Remember, these are “based on calculations of “average stake” … devised to allow for direct comparison between tipsters”

TipsterPRO Period Avg.Profit /Mth ROI Avg Tips/Wk Strike Rate Profit
CD Systems – Daily Bargain Last 6 months 48.07 19% 6 15% 289.00
The Goat Last 12 months 47.23 13% 9 51% 567.89
weBET Football World Last 6 months 64.85 13% 12 35% 389.90
WannaWin BM Last 12 months 146.78 12% 28 15% 1765.00
Sports Insider Last 6 months 25.96 9% 8 52% 156.10
Each Way Value Tips Last 12 months 26.84 5% 7 33% 322.73
BillgkrTips Last 12 months 10.74 3% 8 50% 129.18

 

My question to you is “how will you make a direct comparison between these tipsters using this information?”

Looking at profit figures WannaWin BM is streets ahead of all the others – over three times as much profit as the nearest rival The Goat.

Direct comparison done! Sign up to WannaWIn BM.

Well not quite.

Compare using ROI

Let’s look at it from the perspective of ROI – Return on Investment.

ROI is like a bank interest rate. Don’t you always put your money in the bank with the best interest rate?

What ROI lets you see really easily is for every 100% you Invest what the Return % is.

Now if you take figures above at face value then for every £1000 you invest in CD Systems tips it returns 19% of that in profit – £190.

For every £1000 you invest in WannaWin BM it returns 12% of that in profit – £120.

CD Systems is clearly making more profit than WannWin BM for every £100, £500 or £10,000 of bets.

Direct comparison done! Sign up to CD Systems.

Well, again, not quite.

Different time periods?

What can’t have escaped your notice is that some figures are based on the last 6 months while others are based on 12 months even though ALL of the tipsters have been running for over 12 months – over 2 years in the case of Each Way Value Tips.

So how does showing figures over different time periods make “direct comparison” possible?

For the sceptical among us (that includes me), you might want to check those tipsters who have been measured over 6 months rather than 12 months. Were the 6-month figures more attractive than the 12-month figures? I did check. We both know what the answer is.

Conclusion

Tipstrr is promoting its tipsters in the best light possible and why shouldn’t they. There’s nothing wrong with that – they are a business after all.

But its left to us, the ordinary punter, to always be on our guard – always question – never take things at face value.

ROI (Return on Investment) is THE key figure to use when comparing tipsters.

BUT…

There are many other factors to consider to choose the best tipster for your circumstances.

Do you have £1000 lying around to use for your startup betting bank? Or would you be more comfortable starting with £200 and accept a smaller ROI?  Do you get edgy when there’s a long run of losers? How much time will you have to commit to placing bets every day?

How to pick your perfect tipster

Rob

Rob

I'm Rob, I have an M.Sc. In Mathematics and Computer Science and I am the creator & writer of TheBetInvestor. I provide honest independent assessments of sports tipsters based on statistical and financial investment analysis. My aim is to find profitable tipsters and help you safely navigate the murky waters of the online sports tips world.

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