Football tipster Throdriguez caught my eye recently with four consecutive consistent profitable months since starting in May’20 and an all-time ROI of over 20%.
That 20% ROI is remarkable for a football tipster. That kind of figure is usually reserved for horse racing tipsters like SVB Tips and Wannawin BM.
There are only four months of results but as you can see Strike Rate, Profit, and ROI all look pretty impressive.
| Month | Tips | Strike rate | Profit | ROI | Avg. odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2020 | 41 | 66% | 70.30 | 20.7% | 1.86 |
| Jul 2020 | 50 | 63% | 88.34 | 21.3% | 1.96 |
| Jun 2020 | 50 | 57% | 51.19 | 12.5% | 1.95 |
| May 2020 | 30 | 60% | 79.93 | 32.9% | 2.06 |
There are one or two tips per day published the evening before the match. And nearly all tips have been on Both Teams to Score or in the Over/Under markets. So there is very little effort in following these tips.
There have only been 171 tips in those four months though and at that rate, it will be Februrary or March next year (2021) before he’ll hit the 500 tips threshold I like to set before making a considered opinion on any tipster. That’s six or seven months!
That said, however, there are successful tipsters who are very selective and only publish one or two tips each day Mrjordan, RugbyEyes, Better Bettor for example – so I might take a different view on that 500 tip threshold if Throdriguez produces another two 20% ROI profitable months in September and October.
Value-for-money: Monthly subscription cost is relatively high though at £39, especially for a new tipster. Perhaps he wants to strike while the iron’s hot and make as much as possible during this run of success. Or perhaps from past results he knows just how good this service will be. Only time will tell.
The £39/mth makes the cost per 1% of ROI roughly £2 which is pretty much average.
ELLR: With a 60% Strike Rate, the Estimated Longest Losing Run (ELLR) is 6. This is music to my ears because personally I don’t don’t like long losing runs so this is a great figure for me.
p-Value: With so few tips it’s difficult to calculate the p-value with any degree of confidence. Throdriguez‘s p-value is around 0.2% right now so there’s reasonable evidence that the ROI being produced here is not just due to chance.
(The p-value is a statistical indicator that can reveal whether the results being achieved by a tipster could be equally due to chance or luck. The more tips there have been and the lower this value is the better. The very best p-value figures are in the 0.00001% region e.g. SVB Tips with over 4,000 tips and Amigobet with over 1500 tips.)
Risk/Reward: The Risk/Reward ratio for Throdriguez based on this four-month period is excellent. There is a high ROI reward combined with low variance in performance.
CONCLUSION
The early signs are positive.
A high ROI; excellent Risk/Reward and ELLR numbers; a good p-value and reasonable value-for money; plus its an easy to follow service with very little effort involved.
But we need to see how the next few months go to get a better idea of how good this tipster is.
I’m putting Throdriguez on my watchlist and I suggest it should be on yours too.
You can check how well he as been performing since I wrote this
(Postscript : I’ve been tracking tipsters for quite some time now mostly on Tipstrr, Bettinggods and Blogabet. And I’ve not done any solid analysis of this but I have the sense that tipsters can be very successful for maybe 4 to 6 months right at the beginning before their run of success breaks. At around that time its either a temporary setback or, for some, its a total disaster. I’m often tempted to go with this kind of gut feeling for tipsters like Throdriguez at this stage and hopefully ride their wave of successful profits. We’ll see how right or wrong I am over the next couple of months. And maybe I should do that solid analysis to see if it’s just my imagination or there is some kind of pattern.)