SmallFieldPunting : 70% ROI? Really?

SmallFieldPunting made it to the 3rd spot on November’s “Best Horse Racing Tipsters” on Tipstrr.

I’d already spotted this one in October and couldn’t resist having a look at how he was making 70% ROI.

70% ROI? Hmmm. I thought something funny’s going on here.

But here’s what I found.

[Don’t miss the update at the end of the post]

What’s the big idea?

The premise behind the tips is fairly obvious from the name and its summed up in the tipsters “What to expect” section by the brief statement “Is value more easy to identify in smaller fields?”

Quick sanity check

Let’s get to the numbers. First off a quick sanity check.

As I write this the headline stats are 72% ROI; 12 tips a week; average odds of 12; and a Win Rate of 15%

A Win Rate of 15% means that for every 100 bets, 15 are winners. At average odds of 12, this gives you 165 points profit (15 times 11)
Subtract the 85 points lost with the 85 losers and you’re left with an overall profit of 80 points.
Eighty (80) points profit from 100 points bet is an ROI of 80% ROI. So that all seems to stack up.

What am I waiting for – sign me up right now!

Before I do that though, let me just have a quick check on the stats page – particularly the Stakes Breakdown.

Curiouser and curiouser

Only 249 tips – 242 advised at 1 point – 7 advised at 10 points! What? Nothing in between? Now that’s a bit odd-looking.

And 160 points (70%) of the total profit from only 7 (3%) of the tips? An ROI of 228%? Strange to say the least.

And the seven 10-point tips have won twice as often as the 1 point tips? Curiouser and curiouser! (cried Alice). But there have only been seven of them and two have won so I’ve little faith in that statistic.

Fortunate mistakes?

Normally the advised stake reflects the confidence the tipster has in the selection.

So were the 10-point tips deliberate? Or just a fortunate mistake? Did he mean to type 1 rather than 10? Or maybe he had inside info?

Three of the seven 10-point tips were published as the tips for 7th Oct 2021  – with so many others being 1-point that kind of looks like a mistype (two tips lost and one won at odds of 12).

The other four 10-point bets happened at the very beginning on the first two days of tips – on the 1st and 3rd of July.

My take on all this is as follows:

1. the three 10-point tips on the 7th Oct tips were a mistype
2. the very first tip on the very first day won at odds of 11 and he reckoned the win rate of this method wouldn’t be that great and he wanted to protect that big initial profit so he dropped back to 1 point per tip

Discounting the seven 10-point tips still leaves us with the large bulk of tips advised at 1-point and making 27.5% ROI – which is absolutely very respectable.

But how would things look if the 10-point tips were actually 1-point tips?

Correcting the “Mistakes”

I adjusted the 10-point tips to 1-point to see how the figures would turn out.

The outcome would have been a 33% ROI instead of 72% ROI. I’ll take that any day of the week.

But what about the 15% Win Rate?

A 15% WIn Rate indicates an ELLR of 24 – that’s quite a long streak of losers – and at an average of 11 tips a week you might end up without a winner for two weeks or more!

And in fact, that’s exactly what happened right at the start of these tips.

The very first tip on the very first day 1st Jul 2021 produced a winner and it was depressingly followed by 24 losers (and 3 void bets) over the following 39 days!

Got to hand it to the tipster for persevering with this.

Conclusion

SmallFieldPunting is definitely worth keeping an eye on.

And I would assume all tips to be 1-point stakes – anything else is a typo.

The current p-value of 8% is high. That’s driven by the relatively small number of tips and the high odds.

However, if he maintains the same level of success over 500 tips – at the current rate that would be another 5/6 months, and April/May 2022 – the p-value would drop to 6% and close to the 5% threshold figure which indicates strong evidence that this is not just luck.

Trial Subscription for £1

The monthly subscription is £19 – for this level of ROI that’s really cheap – but right now there’s a trial offer and you can “Get your first 7 days for just £1“.

But what’s the chance of making a profit during the trial?

If you got the average 11 tips in the 7 days of the trial then the stats suggest there’s an 80% chance you’d get a winner during that week and the possibility of a small profit.

On the watch-list

This one’s on the Watch-List and we’ll return to this tipster in a few months’ time.

Maybe now’s a good time to grab that trial offer and “Get your first 7 days for just £1“.

Either way, you can find out more about SmallFieldPunting here

If you enjoyed this article and found it useful you can subscribe to thebetinvestor to get notified when new articles like this are posted.