Quentin Franks Racing facts hidden in the data

The Quentin Franks tipster service from Bettinggods has had a great year April 2018 to now March 2019.

Analysing the results since this service began almost 5 years ago back in July 2014 shows some hidden information which is rather quite revealing.

The data I looked at covered the period 1st Jul 2014 to 25 Apr 2019.
The Bettinggods spreadsheet contains some errors which I have corrected for this analysis. For example it treats non-runners, 54 of them, as a loss.

Interestingly the spreadsheet contains two columns for the odds. One column contains the odds available when the tip was recorded the second column shows the Starting Price.

Its a well known and broadly accepted fact that you can’t always get the same odds as the tipster. If you’re late to the game the rest of the world has maybe already bet on the tip and the odds have shortened dramatically. This is where my first piece of analysis comes in.

Profit: Depends on getting the odds

The Quentin Franks tipster service shows headline figures of a healthy 1414 points profit over the five years of operation. Those headline figures are based on the odds advised at the time of registering the tip with Bettinggods. You would receive the tips some time later in an email and odds could easily have changed in the time between the tip being registered and you opening the email and placing the bet.

Odds: Advised odds versus SP

Calculating the profit based on Starting Prices (SP) shows a dramatically different story. Instead of 1414 point profit at the advised odds using SP odds you are looking at a 193 point loss.
Clearly it’s important to be on the ball and get the same or very close to the odds advised by this tipster service.
So just how on the ball do you need to be?
If you can get odds which are on average 90% of the advised odds then the profit figure will have dropped over 60% from 1414 points to 545 points.
If you cannot get odds that are at least 83% of the advised odds you will be making a loss.

Odds: Effect of drifting odds

Looking at tips were the SP odds were bigger than the advised odds revealed that 1313 of 4923 tips odds had drifted at race time. The odds were longer by an average of 28%.  1110 of these 1313 drifters (85%) lost.
The SP odds for 3171 tips had shortened from the advised odds by an average of 25%  2331 (74%) of those lost.
This suggests you should not bet on tips where the odds have got bigger after being tipped. However to wait to see if this is happening means you probably lose the opportunity to get better odds for those tips whose odds shorten.
It’s a tricky if not impossible situation to make this criterion part of a betting approach.

Stakes: Advised Stakes versus Level Stakes

The maximum stake on a tip has been 5 points but the average stake is 1.35 points.

The ROI at advised stakes is 22.31%. At level-stakes teh ROI is 22.21%. So there seems relatively little benefit to running at advised stakes.

Losing Runs Winning Runs

I thought is would be useful to look at winning and losing runs in terms of days rather than bets.

A tipster may put out several tips for a day but they may not necessarily be recorded in such a sequence as to make a longest losing run accurate or meaningful.
Imagine a football tipster tipping 10 football matches all of which kick off at the same time. The winning and losing streaks will be different depending on where the winners and losers fall.
I reckon a lot of betters look back on a days betting to assess how things went – was I up today or was it a losing day?
Quentin Franks Actual Longest Losing Run of days has been 10. He has had 2 of these 10 losing days in a row. The actual longest winning run of days has been 7 – again there have been 2 of these.
If you’re having a losing run you can expect it to be between 1 and 4 days 90% of the time. For winning days you can expect the run to last between 1 and 3 days 90% of the time.
The breakdown of runs of losing and winning days is shown in the table below.

Losing Runs in Days

Losing Days
in a row
1 335
2 194
3 117
4 75
5 42
6 21
7 10
8 4
9 3
10 2

Winning Runs in Days

Winning Days
in a row
1 332
2 141
3 61
4 33
5 11
6 4
7 2

Sweet Spot

The question posed here is whether tips in a particular odds range are more successful than others?
The table below shows how numbers of bets and ROI is affected as you change the minimum advised odds.
Odds of 3 or greater represent 87% of all tips issued and get 25.57% ROI which is better than overall ROI of 21.04%.
Odds of 4 or greater include 69% of all tips and gives a 30.05% ROI.

Min.Odds Bets %ofTips Stake P/L ROI
1 4977 100% 6726 1415 21.04%
2 4918 99% 6617 1419.48 21.45%
3 4314 87% 5530 1414.23 25.57%
4 3457 69% 4205 1263.46 30.05%
5 2755 55% 3210 1105.62 34.44%
6 2200 44% 2493 1001.37 40.17%
7 1763 35% 1966 823.1 41.87%
8 1421 29% 1568 828.1 52.81%
9 1127 23% 1235 800.35 64.81%
10 913 18% 989 789.25 79.80%
20 192 4% 199 292.75 147.11%

Note: Min.Odds are based on advised odds.
There is always balance to be struck between ROI and numbers of bets. High ROI with low number of bets means lower profit unless you increase your stakes.
A lower ROI with a higher number of bets can lead to higher profit.

Figures in table above would suggest it might be more lucrative only betting on tips with advised odds of 3 or greater.

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