Less than a month ago Bettinggods sacked three of their tipsters for poor performance.
It was only going to be a matter of time before at least one replacement was found.
And there he was, The Outside Edge, quietly launched on Saturday 11th Jun’20.
“After six months of proofing we quietly launched a brand new horse racing service this morning, and he got off to an EPIC START… Take a look for yourself …” Bettinggods proudly announced in their email.
So of course I took a look.
Here’s what I found.
The EPIC START
The “epic start” that Bettinggods touted consisted of the following 7 tips – 3 winners and 4 losers – with 26.2 points profit.
|11-Jul-2020||Ascot||15:15||Beat Le Bon||23.00||1pt ew||2.00||Lost||-2.00|
|11-Jul-2020||Leopardstown||17:15||Patrick Sarsfield||5.00||2pt win||2.00||WON||8.00|
|11-Jul-2020||Ascot||14:05||Queen Of Silca||13.00||1pt ew||2.00||Lost||-2.00|
|11-Jul-2020||Newmarket||16:10||Vale Of Kent||17.00||1pt ew||2.00||Lost||-2.00|
I suppose you could class that as “epic” but heavens above its only one day.
But its the perfect day isn’t it, to launch a new service on the back of “epic” results?
Let’s have a closer look at the stats.
The Stats so far
There’s an average of 2 to 3 tips per day but on Saturdays that ramps up to something like 5 or 6.
The overall bet Win Rate is 30% and the overall ROI of 20% is very good.
The overall Strike Rate (horse has won the race) is 18%.
There have been 463 tips so far and these are split 55% Win tips and 45% Each-ways tips.
Of the 252 Win Tips, there have been 62 winners and 190 losers – a Win Rate of 25%
Average odds for the Win tips is 6.38 and ranges from 2.20 to a surprising 51 but most of the odds range from 3.5 to 7.00
The Strike Rate (the horse has won the race) for the Win tips is 18.3% and these tips have produced an ROI of 16.5%.
The 18.3% SR suggests an Estimated Longest Losing Run (ELLR) of 31.
The Each-way tips are performing better than the win tips.
There have been 211 Each-way tips with 73 winners and 138 losers – a Win Rate of 35%
Average odds for the Each-ways tips have been 15.64 but they range from 5.50 to 81.00. Most (80%) are below odds of 21.00 (20/1) and half (50%) have been between odds of 9 and 17.
The tipped horse has actually gone on to win the race in 24 of the 211 tips – a Strike Rate of 11.4%.
The p-value is currently 11.7% which is way too high. This indicates that these profits could be due to chance. With more tips and results under his belt, I expect this p-value to reduce. However, getting it to a value under 1% may prove difficult but we’ll see.
The Risk/Reward ratio is 1.22 telling us that there is more risk with this tipster than there is reward on offer. Again this will change through time and it will be interesting to see how things pan out.
Winning and Losing Streaks
The actual longest losing run of tips so far has been 22.
Considering that the Bettinggods results are only recorded to the date and not sequenced by time this actual figure of 22 matches well with the Estimated Longest Losing Run (ELLR) of 18.
This losing streak of 22 affected the ROI for the most recent 3 months when the ROI which had been at 20% dropped to 12%.
Over 90% of all winning streaks have been limited to 1 or 2 in a row.
Winning and Losing Days
The actual longest run of Losing Days has been 8 – eight losing days in a row – but this has happened only once. Two-thirds (68%) of the time a run of losing days has lasted only 1 or 2 days.
Most (80%) streaks of winning days have also lasted for only 1 or 2 days. The longest run has been 7 winning days in a row. But again this has only happened once.
If we compare these actual values for winning and losing days with the estimated values we see they match very closely.
With the average tips per day being 2.27 and the ELLR of 18 this produces a longest losing run of days of 8 (18 losing tips divided by 2.27 per day = 7.9 losing days)
Winning and Losing Months
Profits in wining months so far have been 3 times the losses in the losing months which is good.
An average winning month produced 45 units/points profit whereas an average losing month lost 8 units/points.
However, the current stat of 2 losing months from 6 doesn’t look too hot.
By the end of Sep’20 that might get to look like 2 losing from 9 months – 7 winning months from 9 – which would be a lot more reassuring.
Value for Money
The cost of 1% of ROI is £1.34 which is fairly average.
It’s a little too early to judge one way or the other on The Outside Edge.
The number of tips is under 500 and we’ve only just hit the 6 months of results that I set as targets for assessments.
Also sometimes Bettinggods tipsters seem to fall off a cliff just as they get launched – is it a Bettinggods curse?
So I wouldn’t be jumping on board this tipster just yet.
The biggest concern right now is the very poor p-value indicating these results may just be down to chance.
I will reassess The Outside Edge in a couple of months’ time at the end of Sep’20. That will give me 9 months of results and by that time I reckon there should have been at least 650 tips.