It was the background of this tipster that really got me interested. Here’s a summary.
He has 22 years of experience in the gambling industry and was a full-time trader for 10 of those years.
He has learned the hard way about Discipline, Consistency and Bank Management. And it has taken him years and a lot of losses to gain the wealth of experience he has today.
He researches only one market – the Asian Handicap market.
His selections are based on data analysis, solid discipline and risk management.
Today, he says, he is making a living from these selections.
Natural Asian Lines just made it into the Nov’19 Best New Tipster top 10 so we’ve only got three months of results and 55 tips to work with. But here’s my initial thoughts.
The first thing I wanted to check was could I get the same odds on the bets as the published tips. The answer is yes.
Forty percent (40%) of his tips have been posted over three days before the event. Two-thirds (67%) of tips have been posted over 1 day before the event. So I wanted to know if these were “value” tips whose odds could vanish quickly or were these tips based on expertise.
Checking back on the odds available at kick-off on these matches I could indeed get the same odds and even better in many cases.
The fact that Pinnacle odds were used for over half the tips is a big positive as well. Remember Pinnacle is respected in the betting industry for having odds that are very accurate to real probabilities.
This is therefore not a “value” tips service and I might also be able to use the betting exchanges to my advantage.
Winning and Losing Runs
In the description of Natural Asain Lines it goes on to say “Following my selections will show you that I am steady eddy and focus on the long term. My biggest losing streak with this portfolio is eight bets and my longest winning streak is nine bets.”
The stats show a 51% strike rate for those 55 tips. That produces a statistical Estimated Longest Losing Run of 6 (six). And when I checked every one of those 55 tips I could only find a longest losing run of 3 losers and a longest winning run of 6 winners.
That was based on the starting times of the matches. Even based on the times when tips were published the 8-losing/9-winning streaks aren’t right.
Perhaps these figures based on his own historical results which stretch beyond the stats records being recorded on Tipstrr.
Either way, the ELLR looks encouraging.
Regularity of Tips
Tips seem to be published on a fairly irregular basis. It isn’t like a tip posted every day for that day.
There have been quite long periods, a week, sometimes two weeks, when there are no tips published at all. Other days for example 22Nov’19 when 9 tips got posted for matches over the following three days.
All but 1 of the 55 tips have been advised at 1 point stakes and that one was 2 points. So he’s effectively using level-stakes.
Those 1 point stakes made 15.41 points profit over 3 months.
To make any reasonable money here you’ll have to bet at £20 per point which would have produced an average of £100 profit per month.
If success continues over the next couple of months I reckon this will go to a paid subscription. It will likely start out at £19 or maybe £29 per month. So that would come out of your £100.
The key thing here is that right now Natural Asian Lines is free.
He is maybe just finding his feet being a public tipster so this irregular tipping/betting pattern may change with time which would make things a bit easier.
But every good tipster service starts somewhere and, to me, this looks likes a great start.
I’m going to follow this service closely over the next month using small stakes real money bets.
I’ll keep you posted on how things go.
If you want to find out more about how Natural Asian Lines is doing click the buttons below.