I was stunned when I saw these headline figures. My brain went into overdrive. 33% Win Rate at average odds of 10?
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My very rough mental calculation went like this:
33 winners at odds of 10 is about 300 profit less the 67 losers is more than 200 overall profit – from 100 stakes – an unbelievable 200% ROI – that’s nothing like the 38% ROI shown.
Hold on there’s got to be something wrong there. And you’re right. There is.
The 38% ROI is probably much closer to the truth.
But hold on again – why should I care about ROI and Win Rates anyhow? Just look at the profit graph!
Look how much profit is being made here every month – 1255 in Sep, 386 in Oct, 736 in Nov, already 713 in Dec and it’s only the 8th Dec now. This guy must be clairvoyant.
What exactly is going on here? Let’s take a closer look.
All tips are Each-Way Tips
This explains why my quick calculation was wrong. All the tips are Each-Way bets so my simple logic calculation above doesn’t hold true.
Analysis of all tips
When I downloaded all the actual recorded Landry Horse Racing tips from Tipstrr into a spreadsheet for analysis I found a few issues.
Data Errors
I found four duplicated tips in the data. I put this down to computer glitches – it happens from time to time. The effect on the statistics is small but I removed the duplicates anyway before continuing.
(For completeness and in case you want to double-check: Mon Palois (2nd Nov), Bialco (9th Nov), and Universal Gleam (16th Nov) were all tipped twice and were losers which meant loses were twice what they should have been. Flow Away (19th Oct) was a winner but again had been tipped twice first at odds 21 then later at odds of 15. These 4 duplicates resulted in profit being overstated by 48 points)
Wrong number of tips
After removing the duplicates I was with 813 unique tips in the spreadsheet.
But this didn’t match with the Landry Horse Racing stats page which showed 806 tips. I had 7 actual recorded tips not being included in the stats page data. I have no way of knowing which ones they are or how to do anything about them.
Not all tips were Each-Way
The stats page also showed 804 of the 806 tips were Each-Way and 2 tips were classed as “Other” – in other words, there were two tips that were not Each-Way tips.
All (100%) of the tips I downloaded were tagged as “Each Way” so maybe there’s a slight problem on the stats page.
And just to complicate things here’s a quote from Landry Horse Racing’s “About” page: “All bets are each way. If you see a bet that is not, it is a mistake from us. I repeat every bet is an each way bet.“
Who’s data is correct
So now I’m in a bit of a quandary. Who’s data is actually correct? Or at least who’s is more correct.
I decided to proceed with my own downloaded data, with the duplicates taken out, based on the logic that it represents “all” the tips that Landry wanted to submit.
Strike Rate and Win Rates
The tipster stats page showed a Strike Rate of 8% not the 33% shown in the headline figures. Why is this?
The 8% figure in the stats page is based on race winners only – it did not include being Placed as a “winning” tip. The headline Win Rate figure of 33% does (correctly) include all winning tips. Both figures are therefore correct but they do represent different things.
Clearly there’s a distinction between Strike Rate in the stats page and Win Rate in the headlines.
Analysing the data in the spreadsheet shows that 25% of the 813 tips were Placed and 8% Won so the Win Rate of 33% (25% plus 8%) in the headline figures is accurate.
Profit figure discrepancy
From my spreadsheet I found the total profit to be 2979 points – different to the headline figure of 6124.
The headline figure of 6124 assumes a level stake of 10 points per bet. (This has been confirmed to me by Tipstrr as they use this level-stake 10 points approach to help people compare tipsters)
For an Each-Way bet, 10 points per bet represents a total stake of 20 points. All Landry tips are advised at 5 points Each-Way, a total stake of 10 points. The headline profit figure would, therefore, be twice as much as the advised-stake figure. And it is close enough considering the discrepancies I found in the data.
Tips per Day
The headline figure of 63 tips a week is a bit misleading. And you’d be wrong to think you’ll get about 9 tips per day on average.
The Landry Horse Racing tips I analysed start on 2 Sep’19 and run to 8 Dec’19 – a total of 98 calendar days. This would give an average number of 8.3 tips per calendar day.
But not all calendar days are tipping or betting days.
In that 98-day period, there were only 34 days when tips were actually published. This gives an average of 24 tips per day.
All the tips have been posted less than 24 hours ahead of the event. And you can’t bet on days for which no tips are provided. Therefore the more realistic and accurate figure must be the 24 tips per day average.
This figure of 24 is confirmed to a degree in the Landry Horse Racing About page which states “Each day we post between 10-30 tips depending on opportunities!”
This is more than two times the headline figure and is an important factor for Betting Bank management.
It should be noted that multiple runners in the same race are being tipped in quite a few races.
Longest Losing Runs
The calculated Estimated Longest Losing Run (ELLR) is 17. This is based on the current number of tips the Win Rate of 33% at the average odds of 10.58.
The actual longest losing run in the records of Landry Horse Racing tips has been 16 on 16th Nov’19.
Within the margins of error, the actual and estimated figures match pretty closely.
If Win Rate and average odds remain fairly constant then as the number of bets increases the actual longest losing run will increase. I would expect therefore over the next few months to see an actual losing run of 17 or possibly 18.
Longest Losing Days
The longest losing run of 15 to 17 bets at first glance looks quite depressing. It can be difficult to keep faith with a tipster going through a long losing streak.
However, taking a broader view and looking at losing and winning days the data analysis shows a very different picture.
Thirty-four (34) betting days is not enough for solid conclusions but I think it can give us some initial indications.
The actual Longest Run of Losing Days for Landry Horse Racing has been 2 days in a row. This 2-day losing streak has happened 3 times so far.
The actual Longest Run of Winning Days has been 10. More than half the winning streaks have been 3 days or longer.
I think these figures are quite astounding. Especially when you convert it into money.
Using £1 E/W bets, the average losing day was a loss of -£10. An average winning day was a profit of £27.
The worst 2-day loss recorded was -167.5 points over 16th and 17th Nov. That equates to about -£33 lost when betting at £1 E/W stakes.
Staking Options
The most tips posted for any one day during the 2Sep’19-8Dec’19 period was 49 tips on 11th Sep.
With a level-stake of 5 points, E/W betting £1 per point would mean placing bets totalling £490 for that one single day. That’s just not sustainable – the betting bank needed would simply be too large.
A reasonable alternative would be to bet around £50 in total on an average day.
With an average day of 24 tips that would be roughly £2 per bet or in other words, placing £1 E/W bets.
The Landry advised stakes for bets are 5pts Each-Way (10 points in total) which has produced almost 3000 points profit from Sep’19 to the start of Dec’19.
If we had bet these tips at £1 Each-Way (£2 total) this would translate to £600 profit over the 3 months or an average of around £200 profit per month.
In its About page, Landry suggests a Betting Bank of 200 points and using £1 points. Every bet is, therefore, £1 total so it is recommending 50p e/w bets.
Using 50p e/w bets during Sep-Dec’19 the average monthly profit would have been around £100 per month.
The monthly subscription would reduce that to about £80 clear profit.
Conclusion
Landry Horse Racing is definitely worth keeping an eye on. Profits are excellent and all the key indicators look good.
You might even want to jump on this incredible winning streak right now for only £19 a month. And who could blame you?
I’ll review progress after December results are in and do a complete in-depth analysis once he hits the 6-month mark.
The key take-aways right now though are:
- The number of tips per day will keep you busy in the mornings between 8am and 11am but the rewards have been well worth it.
- If this level of performance continues, with a Betting Bank of around £250 and staking £1 E/W on the tips you could be looking at making around £180 clear profit per month.
- The small streaks of losing days versus the much longer streaks of winning days will avoid the frustration of long losing runs and make this an easy service to follow.
Discover more about Landry Horse Racing now and see his latest stats.