The football Home Wins System is performing well
… but something in the data looks a little strange
Performance Over 10 weeks
Almost 10 weeks since starting the football Home Wins System and things are looking pretty good.
173 bets in 76 days. 103 winners and a Strike Rate of 60%. Not bad.
That translates into £586 profit and a healthy 24% ROI. Not too shabby.
A quick analysis of the data though reveals something interesting though.
Analysis of 1 Point versus 2 Point Stakes
I had been staking based on odds. Odds less than 2.00 was a 1 point stake. Odds of 2.00 and above was a 2 point stake.
Looking at the 1 point and 2 point stakes separately shows different Strike Rates.
1 point stakes had 59 wins from 106 selections – an SR = 56%
2 point stakes had 44 wins from 67 selections – an SR = 66%
So the 2 point selections were hitting a better Strike Rate and the effect of this on Profit & Loss is significant.
The 1 point selections were losing me money ( -£6.47 loss).
The 2 point selections were giving me an incredible 48% ROI (+£65.05 profit).
Minimum Odds Sweet Spot
I did some what-if analysis on the data to see where the odds sweet spot might be. The table below shows something significant around the 1.95 / 2.00 mark.
The Profit/Loss peaks around minimum odds of 1.95. The Strike Rate and ROI peak around odds of 2.00 and 2.10 respectively.
| Min Odds | Bets | Strike Rate | Profit/Loss | ROI |
| 1.75 | 109 | 57.8 % | £ 257.50 | 23.62 % |
| 1.80 | 102 | 57.8 % | £ 257.50 | 23.62 % |
| 1.85 | 89 | 58.4 % | £ 259.40 | 29.15 % |
| 1.90 | 81 | 61.7 % | £ 302.10 | 37.30 % |
| 1.95 | 74 | 64.9 % | £ 333.40 | 45.05 % |
| 2.00 | 67 | 65.7 % | £ 325.20 | 48.54 % |
| 2.05 | 62 | 64.5 % | £ 294.60 | 47.52 % |
| 2.10 | 52 | 65.4 % | £ 270.00 | 52.02 % |
| 2.15 | 44 | 61.4 % | £ 202.80 | 46.09 % |
| 2.20 | 40 | 60.0 % | £ 178.00 | 44.50 % |
| 2.25 | 34 | 55.9 % | £ 128.00 | 37.65 % |
Running the analysis on the data I have seems to point to an optimum Minimum Odds of 1.92.
At this point there are a reasonable number of bets at 77. The Profit is at its peak at £342.10. The Strike Rate is a good 64.9%. And the ROI is an excellent 44.43%.
The performance graphs of each option are very similar. There is however a slight difference in the last few weeks. The original staking graph shows a bit of a plateau in the last 5 weeks whereas the Min.Odds 1.92 graph shows a continued upward trend.
Original Staking
Min. Odds 1.92
The Key Performance Indicators of both staking plans were as follows.
| Bets | Won | Lost | SR | P&L | ROI | Winning Days | Losing Days | |
| Original | 173 | 103 | 70 | 59.54% | £585.7 | 24.40% | 29 | 16 |
| Min.Odds 1.92 | 77 | 50 | 27 | 64.93% | £684.2 | 44.43% | 28 | 12 |
Sanity Check
Before I get carried away I know I must temper my excitement with the fact there are only 77 selections. This is a small number.
Statistical significance can only start to kick in at 100 selections. And confidence can only really start at around the 300 selections stage.
At the rate of finding these selections (1 per day on average) it’ll be early 2019 next year before I reach the confidence point..
Next Steps
Going forward then I will still record all the selections as at present but set the minimum odds at 1.92 for betting purposes. That means any selection with odds of less than 1.92 will have a stake of zero.
Keeping these zero-stake selections in will allow me to analyse and refine the 1.92 odds figure as I get more and more data.