It was interesting, in these COVID-19 lock-down times, to read Tipstrr Correspondent’s May post highlighting tipsters still delivering profits.
Of course these posts are intended to broadly promote Tipstrr and their successful tipsters.
But if you go beyond the promotional blurb with some more deeper analysis you can sometimes find little hidden gems.
Where there any nuggets of gold here? Let’s see.
Seven of the tipsters listed didn’t warrant a deeper analysis.
Most had too few tips to make analysis meaningful. In two cases there was clearly too much variance in their monthly figures to consider seriously. Variance implies risk – something we should look to minimise.
TWO Worth a mention
Tipster CD Systems Daily Bargain
CD Systems Daily Bargain – 26 tips, 30.3% ROI (Profit: £157.50 to £20 average stakes)
Tipstrr Correspondent reported “The betting model of CD Systems Daily Bargain has transitioned seamlessly from the UK circuit to horse racing Down Under. Still offering his single carefully-selected tip per day, his 26 selections produced four tasty winners – two at 9/1, one at 17/2 and another at 9/2. Anyone who follows this proven service will not be surprised by the tipster’s success in 2020, of course, as the previous four months also each produced an ROI in excess of 40%.”
CD Systems Daily Bargain has been on my radar for some time now. The average ROI figures over the previous monitoring periods is excellent. The figures read 27% ROI over the previous 12-months, 39% ROI for the last 6-months and and average 31% for the most recent 3-month period. Good sustained ROI.
Another positive is the Value-for-Money rating. The current cost of the service is £39 per month or £30 per month if you take the 3-month package. The cost you pay for each single percent of ROI is therefore around £1.50 which makes its one of the cheapest services to buy.
There are a couple of factors though that put a bit of a downer on these figures.
CD Systems has a low Win Rate of 14% which gives an Estimated Longest Losing Run (ELLR) figure in the region of 42. Personally I don’t like long losing runs even if you do come out the other end winning. I would always keep wondering “well what if this time he just doesn’t turn it around”. It takes balls-of-steel to keep faith after 42 losing bets on the trot. Maybe you have those? I don’t.
The p-value is just over 2% suggesting only moderate evidence that the ROI being attained is due to skill rather than chance.
The lower this value is the better. The best tipsters have p-values ranging from 0.0001% to 0.0002% and values this low indicate very strong evidence of skill on behalf of the tipster. A p-value of 0.0001% suggests there is a 1 in 10,000 chance that the ROI being produced is due to chance.
Tipster Quasi’s Hunches
Quasi’s Hunches – 10 tips, 341.9% ROI (Profit: £683.72 to £20 average stake)
Quasi’s Hunches came top of the list with the description “Our final tipster, and indeed the last of our three horse racing tipsters is Quasi’s Hunches, who took a month off following the shutdown of UK racing just ten days after the Cheltenham Festival. He certainly seemed to benefit from his rest, bouncing back with a 9/2 winner in his first foray into the American market. Better was to follow later the very same day, with back-to-back winners at 9/1 and 22/1, while a further 20/1 place meant that his ten tips in April had earned a mammoth 341% profit, equating to a £683 return from level £20 each way stakes.”
The past 3-months profits look pretty spectacular for Quasi’s Hunches with a 3-month average ROI over 40%. But it is the last month April’20 that puts the shine on the figures.
When you look at the performance graph on the stats page you’ll see a sharp upward line during April when there was an incredible 321 point profit – a “mammoth 341% profit”
Until April’s record profits Quasi’s Hunches had been looking at a 12-month ROI of +4%, a 6-month ROI of -17% and a most recent 3-month ROI of -5.5%. Not figures that would suggest long-term success.
With most of the tips being each-way horse racing the Win Rate is 26% and the Strike Rate (horses winning races) is 12%. The losing runs will therefore be somewhere between 26 and 62 – not ideal.
But for me its the p-value that puts the final nail in the coffin for Quasi’s Hunches.
At 43% the p-value means there’s a 43% probability you could achieve this ROI just by chance.
I’m afraid Quasi and his hunches are not for me.
ONE Potential Gem
The pick of this particular crop was Batibet.
- A respectable ROI of around 11%.
- A good low ELLR of 8 indicating short losing runs.
- A very good p-value of 0.007%.
- And a value for money figure of £1.70 per percent of ROI.
And most of this achieved during the UK Covid-19 lock-down period when sports betting opportunities are in short supply.
A Closer Look
A closer look at the actual results and stats reveals that Football, Basketball, E-sports and Ice-hockey have been the preferred sports.
The average odds of these tips is 1.93 so Batibet is clearly tipping favourites.
And combining very heavy favourites with very short odds into doubles and trebles.
Almost 1 in 5 bets (17%) is a double or a treble combining very short odds favourites.
Providing the Win Rate is there I have no problem with this approach. And in fact the volume of multiples bets is a good thing because it will appear to bookmakers as recreational betting and not a professional betting.
There was a change in staking pattern during March’20. Prior to this stakes had been 5 points and 10 points. This changed to 1, 2 and 3 points during March. And it has been predominantly 1 point level stakes since the start of April’20.
This change of staking from high to low might raise a red-flag as some tipping scams adopt this approach to lure unsuspecting punters. Its based on survivorship bias which you can read more about on the internet.
But I do not believe this is happening here based on analysing the performance using level-stakes.
The monthly performance using level stakes looks like this.
As you can see level-stakes ROI is pretty consistent month on month and is an average of 13.8% over the 4 months. This compares with 10.8% ROI using advised stakes.
Level-staking delivers a 25% better performance!
Batibet is going on my one-to-watch list.
If the potential shown here is maintained over the next three to four months it may very well make it into my portfolio.
Find more information about Batibet or see the full statistics