Finding the best tipsters – this hidden gem is one to watch

It was interesting, in these COVID-19 lock-down times, to read Tipstrr Correspondent’s May post highlighting tipsters still delivering profits.

Of course these posts are intended to broadly promote Tipstrr and their successful tipsters.

But if you go beyond the promotional blurb with some more deeper analysis you can sometimes find little hidden gems.

Where there any nuggets of gold here? Let’s see.

SEVEN Non-contenders

 Seven of the tipsters listed didn’t warrant a deeper analysis.

Most had too few tips to make analysis meaningful. In two cases there was clearly too much variance in their monthly figures to consider seriously. Variance implies risk – something we should look to minimise.

TWO Worth a mention

CD Systems Daily Bargain was worth a mention as was Quasi’s Hunches but for all the wrong reasons as you’ll see.

Tipster CD Systems Daily Bargain

CD Systems Daily Bargain – 26 tips, 30.3% ROI (Profit: £157.50 to £20 average stakes)

Tipstrr Correspondent reported “The betting model of CD Systems Daily Bargain has transitioned seamlessly from the UK circuit to horse racing Down Under. Still offering his single carefully-selected tip per day, his 26 selections produced four tasty winners – two at 9/1, one at 17/2 and another at 9/2. Anyone who follows this proven service will not be surprised by the tipster’s success in 2020, of course, as the previous four months also each produced an ROI in excess of 40%.”

CD Systems Daily Bargain has been on my radar for some time now. The average ROI figures over the previous monitoring periods is excellent. The figures read 27% ROI over the previous 12-months, 39% ROI for the last 6-months and and average 31% for the most recent 3-month period. Good sustained ROI.

Another positive is the Value-for-Money rating. The current cost of the service is £39 per month or £30 per month if you take the 3-month package. The cost you pay for each single percent of ROI is therefore around £1.50 which makes its one of the cheapest services to buy.

There are a couple of factors though that put a bit of a downer on these figures.

CD Systems has a low Win Rate of 14% which gives an Estimated Longest Losing Run (ELLR) figure in the region of 42. Personally I don’t like long losing runs even if you do come out the other end winning. I would always keep wondering “well what if this time he just doesn’t turn it around”. It takes balls-of-steel to keep faith after 42 losing bets on the trot. Maybe you have those? I don’t.

The p-value is just over 2% suggesting only moderate evidence that the ROI being attained is due to skill rather than chance.

The lower this value is the better. The best tipsters have p-values ranging from 0.0001% to 0.0002% and values this low indicate very strong evidence of skill on behalf of the tipster. A p-value of 0.0001% suggests there is a 1 in 10,000 chance that the ROI being produced is due to chance.

Tipster Quasi’s Hunches

Quasi’s Hunches – 10 tips, 341.9% ROI (Profit: £683.72 to £20 average stake)

Quasi’s Hunches came top of the list with the description “Our final tipster, and indeed the last of our three horse racing tipsters is Quasi’s Hunches, who took a month off following the shutdown of UK racing just ten days after the Cheltenham Festival. He certainly seemed to benefit from his rest, bouncing back with a 9/2 winner in his first foray into the American market. Better was to follow later the very same day, with back-to-back winners at 9/1 and 22/1, while a further 20/1 place meant that his ten tips in April had earned a mammoth 341% profit, equating to a £683 return from level £20 each way stakes.”

The past 3-months profits look pretty spectacular for Quasi’s Hunches with a 3-month average ROI over 40%. But it is the last month April’20 that puts the shine on the figures.

When you look at the performance graph on the stats page you’ll see a sharp upward line during April when there was an incredible 321 point profit – a “mammoth 341% profit”

Until April’s record profits Quasi’s Hunches had been looking at a 12-month ROI of +4%, a 6-month ROI of  -17%  and a most recent 3-month ROI of  -5.5%. Not figures that would suggest long-term success.

With most of the tips being each-way horse racing the Win Rate is 26% and the Strike Rate (horses winning races) is 12%. The losing runs will therefore be somewhere between 26 and 62 – not ideal.

But for me its the p-value that puts the final nail in the coffin for Quasi’s Hunches.

At 43% the p-value means there’s a 43% probability you could achieve this ROI just by chance.

I’m afraid Quasi and his hunches are not for me.

ONE Potential Gem

The pick of this particular crop was Batibet.

Tipster BATIBET

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