The headline figures look great but something is most definitely wrong.
The Each Way Value Tips service has been going since Sep 2017 and was recently added to the TipstrrPRO portfolio. I was starting my analysis of this tipster when it all very quickly unraveled.
The headline figures and the detailed statistics are way off.
Here’s a snapshot of the headline figures on 1 Dec’19.
A Win Rate of 35% and an ROI of 31.9% on average odds of 7.45. Now that’s something special.
Well, it would be if it was true.
IMPORTANT UPDATE:
It IS true.
And to save you reading the rest of this post I later discovered the subtle difference between the Win Rate and Strike Rate used at Tipstrr.
The difference comes about when racing tipsters tip each-way bets.
Win Rate shown on the tipster’s headline banner headline is what percentage of tips have won – the win rate of the tips.
Strike Rate shown in the tipster’s stats page is the percentage of horses that have won the race – the win rate of the horses tipped.
In the About section it read “Each Way Value Tips has made 6838.16 units profit all time across 1082 Horse racing tips (roughly 10 tips per week), based on an average stake of 10 units (3.8/10 units) giving an average monthly profit of 259.84 units”
This gives us a bit more information – the number of tips and the average advised stake. But its the details in the stats page which is more revealing.
In the Sport breakdown section of the stats page it shows 1083 tips and a Strike Rate (Win Rate) of 17%.
| Sport | Tips | Strike rate | Profit | ROI | Avg. odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Horse racing | 1083 | 17% | 2605.26 | 31.9% | 7.45 |
One tip discrepancy I’m not going to argue about but the 17% ROI is half of the headline figure of 35% – that’s significant.
The Market Type breakdown figure also indicates a 17% Win Rate.
| Market type | Tips | Strike rate | Profit | ROI | Avg. odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Each way | 1039 | 17% | 2654.21 | 33.8% | 7.47 |
| Other | 44 | 14% | -48.95 | -22.5% | 6.55 |
So which is it? Is this tipster winning one in every 3 tips or 1 in every 6?
The Monthly Breakdown figures are as follows.
You can see that only one month, Sep’18, has a Strike Rate greater than 30%. That makes an average of 35% mathematically impossible. SIxteen (over half) of the 27 months are under 20% ROI.
Taking a straightforward average ROI across all months results in an average ROI of 17%. A weighted average for all months is also 17%.
So we have three separate sections of the statistics page that agree and point to 17% as the Win Rate.
The conclusion is the headline figure 35% ROI is wrong.
If we look now at the monthly profit figures in the Historical monthly breakdown section.
Summing the monthly profits of the 27 months gives a total of 2605 points profit – an average of 96.49 points per month – not the 259.84 points stated in the About section.
The stated average profit per month is also badly wrong.
These headline figures are misleading and unfortunately, many people will sign up for this service based purely on those juicy attention-grabbing headlines.
Before I complete my analysis of Each Way Value Tips I will contact Tipstrr to discuss where the inaccuracies can be corrected.