Winners and Prices
The focus is NOT on finding winners.
That may seem strange. But winners are only half the equation when it comes to profiting from betting.
Winning at the betting game is not just about finding winners. It’s about finding winners AND prices. And the prices must be right.
If it were just a question of winners then the game would be easy. You’d simply back the favourites – the market’s opinion of the best team. You’ll get a good a strike-rate and win a lot of the time and that should do the trick – right? Wrong!
Sure, when you back favourites, you back plenty of winners. But the short prices make it impossible to make the game pay. Favourite-backing means you experience the joy of winning more frequently than most – but those wins do not translate into betting profit.
For long-term profit you need to be backing sufficient winners at sufficiently good prices.
Finding Value
Getting value doesn’t mean just betting at a big price. Getting value means backing an outcome that is trading at the wrong price.
The contrarian system is based on identifying opportunities that are trading at odds that under-estimate their true chances of winning.
Everyone Else is WRONG
Its betting at value-for-money prices – the most effective way of producing long-term betting profit. But it is taking the stance that everyone else is wrong and that can feel like a scary place to be. The lone wolf approach won’t appeal to everyone.
But the rewards are there they say for fearless punters equipped with a pioneering instinct and a temperament that can handle the trials and tribulations that inevitably arise from taking the contrarian approach to betting.
The Bookmaker is WRONG
Its often said that the Over 2.5 goals is a “coin toss” – 50/50 – half the games end up Over 2.5 goals the other half under. This is generally true but if you’ve done your research you’ll know it varies between countries, leagues and even teams.
But this is probably all factored into the odds offered by bookmakers. Isn’t it? I’m not convinced.
Do bookmakers analyse and accurately price ALL the outcomes in ALL the markets in ALL the football matches they offer odds on? Or do some bookies simply follow the bookie-crowd and copy their prices. Or maybe they just follow the crowd on the exchanges. I don’t know. Probably a little bit or even a big bit of everything.
But what if there is no market to follow? What happens when they are creating the market?
Something tells me bookies will sometimes just put up their “standard” odds for some markets especially in the more obscure leagues and teams cross the world. And sometimes they’ll just plain get it wrong.
Taking the “contrarian stance” you will most likely lose more often than you win but you win frequently enough at big enough prices to make the game pay long-term.
My Contrarian 2.5 Goals System
My contrarian system covers both Over and Under 2.5 goals markets. The odds variations in these markets are not huge – not like the range of prices you can get in horse racing. But if it is a “50/50” chance market as they say or even a “55/45” chance market then I think the odds are there to maybe make it work.