This system is now in its fifth month and it has delivered profit every month since its inception in Sep’17.
In my continuing quest to refine and improve this system I did this analysis of the system in mid-January’18.
In an earlier system review post some weeks ago I identified the Unders system selections were under-performing but rather than removing them I decided to leave them in and keep them under review.
To allow like-for-like comparisons the figures below are all based on level stakes and shows the Profit or Loss (P/L) and the Return on Investment (ROI) for different levels of odds.
Under and Over 2.5 Goals Predictions
For example, for Odds of 2.40 and over (2.40+) there were 67 selections. This accounted for 15% of all the selections. The P/L was 11.37 points and the ROI was 17.0%.
Overall the system is generating a positive ROI at each level of odds which is good.
But I wanted to see which element was performing better – the Under 2.5 goals predictions or the Over 2.5 goals predictions.
Under 2.5 Goals Predictions
Separating out the Under 2.5 selections the figures are as follows:
Overall the Unders selections generate profits and deliver a positive ROI however you can see negative ROI starting to creep in at odds over 2.40 and over. The low ROI of 1.7% overall is also disappointing.
Over 2.5 Goals Predictions
The Over 2.5 selections profile looks like this:
The Overs selections are generating a strong positive ROI at all level of odds just like the combined Under and Overs selections in the first table above.
It appears the Unders selections are continuing to have a negative affect on the Overs ROI figure.
Next Steps
I will divide the system into two independent systems and track the Overs and the Unders independently.
The beginning of next month, February’18, might be an opportune time to make this split.
This will hopefully allow me to see what opportunities there may be in finessing the Unders selections. For example, to see it its possible to lower the minimum odds for Unders selection to below 2.00 and improve ROI.