I found this tipster while scouring Tipstrr for the next big thing.
He’d been tipping since May 2021. This was just his fourth month.
But an ROI of 25% from a Win Rate of 55% on Average Odds of 2.32 looked very interesting.
As did not having to pay the subscription fee …
I never imagined analysing sports tipsters would put me in a moral dilemma – but by the end of this post I think I found a compromise I can live with.
UPDATE : 30 Sep 2021
Talk about a crash-and-burn!
Football Single Tip lost 250 points during September and since this post was first written at the end of August – losing practically ALL profits to date.
Thats a re-affirmation that needing a minimum of 6 months performance results is definitely a good idea.
At the time I did this analysis on 26th Aug. Football Single Tip had published 119 tips and he was averaging one tip a day.
You can see for yourself that almost all – 97% of tips – were tips for the Over/Under 2.5 goals.
AND if you look at his results – 99% of the time the tip was for Over 2.5 Goals.
|Both Teams to Score||2|
The first thing I thought was “I could blindly bet on all these tips as Over 2.5 Goals and make a handsome profit – for free!”
When you look at current tips of tipsters you’re not subscribed to you can see what the match is but not the betting market nor the advised stake nor the odds.
But if you “knew” – or a least assumed – all the tips were for Over 2.5 Goals then knowing what the match is, is the only thing you need to know.
You wouldn’t have to pay the subscription fee.
Would betting blind work?
So would betting Over 2.5 Goals on all this tipster’s tips work?
The short answer is YES – BUT ONLY IF HE DOESN’T CHANGE ANYTHING.
But what about the tips that weren’t Over/Under 2.5 goals?
I looked at the tips that were not Over/Under 2.5 tips – would they have lost money if we’d blindly bet Over 2.5 on them?
The bottom line was – NO. In fact, they would have all been winners.
Here’s the detail:
1 Tip – Over/Under 2.25 goals
The Over/Under 2.25 goals was Rayo Vallecano vs R.Oviedo on 20th May. The match ended with a 4:0 scoreline so it ended Over 2.5 Goals at average available odds of 2.27 – a WINNER.
2 Tips – Both Teams to Score
On 23rd July Schalke vs Hamburg was tipped as BTTS at odds of 1.53. The match ended 1:3. Again Over 2.5 Goals with available average odds of 1.65 – a WINNER – and at better odds.
On 20th July Annan vs Queens Park was tipped for both BTTS and Over 2.5. It ended 1:2 – Over 2.5 goals – a WINNER.
1 Tip – Football Double
There was a double on the 29th of June which lost.
Here’s what you typically see for accumulators if you’re not subscribed – again you get to see what the first match is but nothing more.
The Double involved an Over 1.5 Goals tip in the El Jadida vs Mouloudia dOujda match together with Sweden to Beat Ukraine.
You would have seen the El Jadida vs Mouloudia dOujda being tipped. The match ended as a 2:2 draw – so another WINNER at average odds of 2.24.
Sweden v Ukraine was 1:1 after 90 mins and so lost the Double.
Provided this tipster doesn’t change anything about his tipping – and this is totally what this depends on – it looks like you could blindly bet every one of his tips as Over 2.5 Goals and make a handsome profit without paying a penny in subscription costs.
Also, his staking is a flat 10 points every tip so there’s no complications to worry about there.
Ethics and Morals
But is doing that ethical? Is it morally right?
Shouldn’t you pay the small subscription of £19 / month to at least incentivise the tipster to keep his service going and keep finding tips? He’s making you money after all.
I’ve always said “Free is always good in my book” but this is taking something for free rather than it being free. Isn’t that called stealing?
A compromise: payment-by-results
Perhaps a compromise to this dilemma might be to:
Use his tips for free for a month and if he’s made you money at the end of it then pay the next month’s subscription out of your profits.
A kind of payment-by-results approach.
I could live with that.
No more assuming Over 2.5 goals – you get the actual tips.
You can always keep tabs on any change to his tipping by keeping an eye on his results.
Find out more about Football Single Tip here