Short Losing Runs
Value for Money
- Over 2,500 tips
- High consistency
- Low-risk / High-reward
- Excellent ROI
- Low subscription cost
- Low Strike/Win Rate
- Potential long losing runs
- horse racing tipster
- 20 tips per week
- selections based solely on value
- most tips published 10am – 11am
- recommends following in real-time before value vanishes
Sports & Markets
WannaWinBM is focused on UK horse racing and picking race winners typically at odds of 8.00 (7/1) and above.
He has been particularly successful at picking winners at Newmarket and Lingfield.
A Win Rate of 18% at Newmarket at average odds of 9 (8/1) has produced an incredible 75% ROI and almost 1,000 points profit.
Tipping & Betting Profile
WannaWinBM publishes an average of around 20 tips per week so you can expect about 3 per day on average. Saturdays will naturally be busier with more racecards and more opportunities.
It’s a level-stakes betting approach with 10 points for every selection so you’ll be betting an average of £30 a day if you bet at £1 per point. It’ll be more weekends.
Based on the 22 months’ performance since the service started in Mar’19 the £1/point stakes have produced £280 profit in an average month.
WannWInBM recommends following his tips in real-time. This is because his selections are based on value and value has a nasty habit of disappearing quickly as bookmakers review and adjust their odds constantly.
[A value bet is a bet where the probability of a given outcome is greater than the bookmaker’s odds reflect. Simply put, when value betting you will be placing bets that have a larger chance of winning than implied by the bookmakers odds. This means you will have an edge over the bookmaker in the long run.]
To mimic WannaWIn’s success you ideally need to be on the ball with these tips notifications between 10 and 11 in the morning (UK time) and get your bets asap.
Having more bookie accounts will also help get the advised odds or better in some cases.
WannaWinBM has been in operation since March 2019.
In that 22 month period there have been 18 profitable months averaging +£370 and 4 losing months averaging -£140 points (at £1/point stakes).
I class this as strong performance over the long term.
Return On Investment (ROI)
At the time of this analysis, WannaWinBM’s overall ROI over 22 months of operation is a very good 22%.
NOTE: The headline figure on the Tipstrr website for WannwinBM shows 33% but based on the tipster’s stats this is incorrect. It is around 22%.
All tips are advised at 10 points. Up to and including Feb’21 there have been 2,765 tips. Therefore a total stake of 27,650 points (2,765 x 10).
There have been 6,227 points of profit.
Total profit divided by total stakes = ROI = 6,227 divided by 27,650 = 22.5%
Looking at the ROI over the last 12-months, 6-months and most recent 3-month periods give a good insight into the consistency of a tipster. It can also give an indication of any possible upward or downward trend.
WannaWInBM shows a high level of consistency in delivering ROI. His all-time figure shows an average of 22% ROI. The previous 6-months was 24% ROI. And the most recent 3-months Dec’20 to Feb’21 produced a fabulous 80% ROI.
Estimated Longest Losing Run (ELLR)
This is the only real negative of the WannaWinBM service.
At typical odds of 9 (8/1) WannwinBM is clearly not tipping favourites to win. However, that said, the Win Rate has been very consistent over the months – only once dropping into single figures in Oct’20.
The average Win Rate is 16% which for 3000 tips puts the ELLR around 50.
The Estimated Longest Losing Run (ELLR) is a statistically calculated number based on the Strike Rate (Win Rate) and means you could anticipate suffering a run of 50 losing bets in a row.
That’s a big number and it will affect the Betting Bank needed to follow this tipster as you’ll see below.
Taking a broader view on losing runs, with an average of 3 tips per day, this could mean you should be prepared for a possible streak of 17 losing days in a row.
Skillful or Lucky (P-VALUE)
The statistical p-value reflects the strength of evidence that the ROI being produced by a tipster is due to their skill/expertise or whether it could be just luck or chance.
The best values for p-value are less than 0.1% and the lower this number is the better.
WannaWinBM’s p-value of 0.007% indicates there is very strong evidence that the ROI being delivered by this tipster is not the result of chance but is much more likely due to their expertise.
Betting Bank Required
The worst-case scenario that you should plan for is that as soon as you join any tipster they suffer their longest losing run followed by another longest losing run – extremely unlikely but possible.
Your Betting Bank (and your nerve) needs to be big enough to cope with this and still have something left to effectively start all over.
An ELLR of 50 suggests your betting bank should be able to cover 100 losing bets (2 x 50) and still have some money left to keep betting.
A sensible figure for a betting bank might, therefore, be two and a half times the ELLR multiplied by the stake points.
WannaWinBM’s advised stakes are 10 points per tip. This would suggest a betting bank of around 1250 points (2.5 times 50 times 10) to cover the worst-case scenario.
WannaWInBM himself suggests “a 100 point bank placing 1 point on each selection“. This is equivalent to a 1000 point bank placing 10 points on each selection so the figures are in reasonable agreement.
This is where the negative of a large ELLR is counter-balanced by the positive of a good Risk/Reward figure.
The more a tipster’s ROI varies month-by-month from the average ROI, the more volatile or risky the tipster’s service is. This risk is balanced against the tipster’s ROI which is the reward we are hoping to get.
Dividing the risk figure by the reward figure gives us a Risk/Reward factor that we can use to compare tipsters. The combination of low risk and high reward is the ideal combination. So the smaller the Risk/Reward value is the better. A value under 1 is ideal.
WannaWInBM’s Risk/Reward figure is 1.5 which is not under 1 but is well below the average figure of 2.3.
Value for Money (VfM)
Subscription fees for tipsters can vary widely as can their ROI figures. The VfM figure reflects how much each single percentage point of ROI costs in real money terms.
WannaWinBM’s monthly subscription currently costs £29. His average ROI is 22%. Therefore you are paying £1.31 for each percentage point of ROI (£29 divided by 22). This represents good value for money when you compare it with the average of £2 – £3.
WannaWinBM is delivering an excellent ROI and providing big profits pretty consistently from a relatively low-risk and low-cost service.
The long losing runs may test your character at times. But if you start with the correct betting bank and regularly adjust your stakes based on the available bank this will manage that for you.
This doesn’t have to be a big money investment even though the recommended betting bank seems big.
Based on averages for the last 6 months’ (77 tips per month and 24% ROI) betting at £5 per tip (£10 – £15 a day) would have produced over £90 profit by the end of the month. That would have covered your £29 subscription cost and left you with £60 in your pocket.
As your betting bank grows you would gradually increase that £5 per tip to £6 or £7 or £10. If your betting bank decreases then naturally your £5 per tip would decrease.
A solid performer over almost 2 years of tipping I’m giving WannaWinBM a star rating of 4.5 out of 5.
Find out more about WannaWinBM.