Short Losing Runs
Value for Money
- Over 1400 tips
- High consistency
- Low-risk / High-reward
- Excellent ROI
- Low subscription cost
- Low Strike/Win Rate
- Potential long losing runs
- horse racing tipster
- 40 tips per week
- selections based solely on value
- most tips published 10am – 11am
- recommends following in real-time before value vanishes
Sports & Markets
WannaWinBM is focussed on UK horse racing and picking race winners.
He has been particularly successful at picking winners at Newmarket and York.
A Win Rate of 29% at York at average odds of 9 (8/1) has produced an incredible 112% ROI and just over 500 points profit. His tips at Newmarket hve produced over 700 points profit and an ROI of 90%.
Tipping & Betting Profile
WannaWinBM publishes an average of around 40 tips per week so you can expect about 6 per day on average. Saturdays will naturally be busier with more racecards and more opportunities.
Its a level-stakes approach with 10 points for every selection so on average you’ll be betting an average of £60 a day if you bet at £1 per point. It’ll be more weekends.
Based on the 9 months’ performance since the service started in Mar’19 the £1/point stakes have produced £360 profit in an average month.
WannWInBM recommends following his tips in real-time. This is because his selections are based on value and value has a nasty habit of disappearing quickly as bookmakers review and adjust their odds constantly.
[A value bet is a bet where the probability of a given outcome is greater than the bookmaker’s odds reflect. Simply put, when value betting you will be placing bets that have a larger chance of winning than implied by the bookmakers odds. This means you will have an edge over the bookmaker in the long run.]
To mimic WannaWIn’s success you ideally need to be on the ball with these tips notifications between 10 and 11 in the morning (UK time) and get your bets asap.
Having more bookie accounts will also help get the advised odds or better in some cases.
WannaWinBM has been in operation since March 2019 and there have been no losing months in that 9 month period.
I class this as strong performance over the medium term.
Another few months will take us into the full year with this tipster at which point I’ll be able to assess their long-term performance.
Return On Investment (ROI)
At the time of this analysis, WannaWinBM’s overall ROI over 9 months of operation is an excellent 23%. September was a high of 40% ROI and the month of October was the lowest ROI at 9.5%.
Looking at the ROI over the last 12-months, 6-months and most recent 3-month periods gives a good insight into the consistency of a tipster. It can also give an indication of any possible upward or downward trend.
WannaWInBM shows a high level of consistency in delivering ROI. His all-time figure shows an average of 23.1% ROI. The previous 6-months was 20.2% ROI. And the most recent 3-months returned an average of 26.7% ROI.
Estimated Longest Losing Run (ELLR)
This is the only real negative of the WannaWinBM service.
With average odds of 9 (8/1) these are clearly not tipping favourites to win. However, that said, the Win Rate has been very consistent over the months ranging in the narrow band between 14% and 18%.
The average WIn Rate is 16.4% which produces an ELLR figure of 41.
The Estimated Longest Losing Run (ELLR) is a statistically calculated number based on the Strike Rate (Win Rate) and means you could expect to suffer a run of 41 losing bets in a row.
That’s quite a big number and it will affect the Betting Bank needed to follow this tipster as you’ll see below.
Taking a broader view on losing runs, with an average of 6 tips per day, this could mean you should be prepared for a streak of 7 losing days in a row.
Skillful or Lucky (P-VALUE)
The statistical p-value reflects the strength of evidence that the ROI being produced by a tipster is due to their skill/expertise or could just be due to chance.
WannaWinBM’s p-value of 0.22% indicates there is strong evidence that the ROI being delivered by this tipster is not the result of chance but more likely due to their expertise.
Betting Bank Required
The worst-case scenario that you should plan for is that as soon as you join any tipster they suffer their longest losing run followed by one winner followed by another longest losing run. Your Betting Bank (and your nerve) needs to be big enough to cope with this and still have something left to effectively start all over.
An ELLR of 41 suggests your betting bank should be able to cover 82 losing bets (2 x 41) and still have some money left to keep betting.
A sensible figure for a betting bank might, therefore, be three times the ELLR multiplied by the stake points.
WannaWinBM’s advised stakes are 10 points per tip. This would suggest a betting bank of around 1230 points (3 times 41 times 10) to cover the worst-case scenario.
WannaWInBM himself suggests “a 100 point bank placing 1 point on each selection“. This is equivalent to a 1000 point bank placing 10 points on each selection. So our two figures for Betting Bank are pretty much in agreement.
This is where the negative of a large ELLR is counter-balanced by the positive of an exceptionally good Risk/Reward figure.
The more a tipsters ROI varies month-by-month from the average ROI, the more volatile or risky the tipster’s service is. This risk is balanced against the tipster’s ROI which is the reward we are hoping to get.
Dividing the risk figure by the reward figure gives us a Risk/Reward factor that we use to compare tipsters. The combination of low risk and high reward is the ideal combination. So the smaller the Risk/Reward value is the better.
Until now the best Risk/Reward figure was Sports Insider’s at 0.8 and I rated that as excellent.
WannaWInBM’s Risk/Reward figure of 0.4 must, therefore, be classed as exceptional.
Value for Money (VfM)
Subscription fees for tipsters can vary widely as can their ROI figures. The VfM figure reflects how much each single percentage point of ROI costs in real money terms.
WannaWinBM’s monthly subscription currently costs a mere £19. His average ROI is 23.1%. Therefore you are paying £1.26 for each percentage point of ROI (£19 divided by 23.1). This is a bargain when you compare it with the average of £2 – £3.
WannaWinBM is delivering an excellent ROI and providing big profits consistently from a low-risk and low-cost service. The long losing runs may test your character at times but start with the correct betting bank and it will manage that for you.
This doesn’t have to be a big money investment even though the recommended betting bank seems big.
You could start with a £100 bank and bet £1 per tip and on current performance still make an average of over £30 profit per month.
As your betting bank grows to £200 you might increase that to £2 per tip, then maybe £3 per tip etc. Start small and grow.
I’m giving WannaWinBM a star rating of 4.5 out of 5.
I’m holding that half star in reserve for my next review in Feb’19 when we see how this tipster has done over a full year.
Find out more about WannaWinBM.